Global Leading Indicators

For Release 9:30 AM ET, July 17, 2024

Using the Composite Indexes: The Leading Economic Index (LEI) provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for France fell by 0.5 percent in May 2024 to 109.8 (2016=100), after declining by 0.7 percent in April. As a result, the LEI contracted by 3.0 percent between November 2023 and May 2024, three times the pace of decline of 1 % over the previous six-month period.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for France remained unchanged at 111.3 (2016=100) in May 2024, after a 0.1 percent increase in April. The CEI grew by 0.4 percent between November 2023 and May 2024, a continuation of the 0.1 percent gain over the previous six-month period.

“The France LEI decreased in May, continuing the downtrend that started in July of last year,” said Allen Li, Associate Economist at The Conference Board. “The recent decline in the LEI was driven largely by negative contributions from the yield spread, as in previous months, but also from production expectations which dropped in May. Since the beginning of the year, the Index six-month contraction pace has accelerated sharply, indicating strong headwinds ahead for the French economy. While not forecasting a recession, the Conference Board currently expects annual real GDP growth for France at 0.9 percent for 2024.”

The next release is scheduled for Tuesday, August 20, 2024, at 9:30 A.M. ET.