Global Leading Indicators

For Release 9:30 AM ET, May 16, 2025

Using the Composite Indexes: The Leading Economic Index (LEI) provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for France increased by 0.6% in March 2025 to 109.3 (2016=100), after increasing by 1.0% in February. As a result, the France LEI grew by 1.3% over the six-month period between September 2024 and March 2025, a reversal of the 1.3% decline over the previous six-month period.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for France remained unchanged at 110.7 (2016=100) in March 2025, after ticking up by 0.1% in February. Nevertheless, over the six-month period between September 2024 and March 2025, the CEI for France inched down by 0.1%, after remaining unchanged over the previous six-month period between March and September 2024.

“The France LEI improved in March,” said Allen Li, Associate Economist at The Conference Board. “A drop off in new unemployment claims (on a 3-month moving average basis) and a widening of the yield spread supported the Index. Over the past 6 months, most components of the France LEI recovered from previous lows even if production expectations and industrial new orders remained weak. The 6-month and annual growth rates of the France LEI have clearly moved into positive territory since the beginning of the year. This trajectory suggests that headwinds to growth have abated. Still, considering the slow growth in the first quarter, recent political instability, fiscal pressures, tariffs and slower global growth, The Conference Board currently forecasts France GDP growth to slow to 0.5% in 2025 from 1.1% in 2024.”

The next release is scheduled for Wednesday, June 18, 2025, at 9:30 A.M. ET.

The France LEI improved in March

NOTE: The chart illustrates the so-called 3Ds—duration, depth, and diffusion—for interpreting a downward movement in the LEI. Duration refers to how long the decline has lasted. Depth denotes the size of decline. Duration and depth are measured by the rate of change of the index over the most recent six months at an annualized rate. Diffusion is a measure of how widespread the decline is among the LEI’s component indicators—on a scale of 0 to 100, a diffusion index reading below 50 indicates most components are weakening.

The 3Ds rule signals an impending recession when: 1) the six-month diffusion index lies at or below 50, shown by the black warning signal lines in the chart; and 2) the LEI’s six-month growth rate (annualized) falls below the threshold of −2.4%. The red recession signal lines indicate months when both criteria are met simultaneously—and thus that a recession is likely imminent or underway.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) and Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for France

The composite economic indexes are key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. Comprised of multiple independent indicators, the indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component.

The CEI reflects current economic conditions and is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive tool that anticipates—or “leads”—turning points in the business cycle by around seven months.

The seven components of Leading Economic Index® for France are:

• Yield Spread
• Stock Prices
• Building Permits
• New Unemployment Claims
• Industrial New Orders
• Production Expectations
• Ratio P/L Cost

The four components of the Coincident Economic Index® for France are:

• Industrial Production
• Personal Consumption
• Employment (Private sector)
• Wages and Salaries

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead^®. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. ConferenceBoard.org