June 09, 2022 | Report
The indicator approach was originated in the mid-1930s by economists at the United States’ National Bureau of Economic Research. Their research explored cyclical patterns of economic fluctuations that consist of expansions (periods of positive growth in general economic activity) followed by recessions (contractions in economic activity), which then merge into the expansion phase of the next cycle. Leading indicators are series that tend to shift direction in advance of the business cycle; for this reason, they receive the lion’s share of attention. Coincident indicators, such as employment and production, are broad series that measure aggregate economic activity; thus, they define the business cycle. Since no single time series fully qualifies as an ideal cyclical indicator, it is important to analyze groups of indicators and to look for consistent or common patterns. The leading and coincident economic composite indexes are useful summary measures of the cyclical indicators because, as averages, they tend to smooth out much of the volatility of individual series. A coincident economic index usually turns at the same time as the general economy. It also rises and falls at about the same pace as the gross domestic product (GDP). A leading economic index typically declines before recessions, yet sometimes gives a false signal, usually associated with major growth slowdowns that don’t turn into full blown recessions.
PRESS RELEASE
LEI for Japan Increased Slightly in August
October 09, 2025
PRESS RELEASE
LEI for South Korea Increased in August
October 08, 2025
PRESS RELEASE
LEI for the Global Economy Continued to Decline in July and August
September 29, 2025
PRESS RELEASE
LEI for China Declined Again in August
September 25, 2025
PRESS RELEASE
LEI for India Ticked Up in August
September 23, 2025
PRESS RELEASE
LEI for the Euro Area Declined in August
September 19, 2025
All release times displayed are Eastern Time
Note: Due to the US federal government shutdown, all further releases for The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI), The Conference Board-Lightcast Help Wanted OnLine® Index (HWOL Index), The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® of the US (US LEI) and The Conference Board Global Leading Economic Index® (Global LEI) data may be delayed. TCB will resume publication once updated US federal government data are released.
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