May Brings Mixed Jobs Data

Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead^®

• The labor market remains on solid footing despite the impacts of tariffs on economic growth. Nonetheless, headwinds remain.
• Payrolls rose by 139,000 in May, while the unemployment rate held at 4.2%, signaling continued resilience in labor demand.
• Firms were largely reluctant to downsize headcount through May. It is likely that some employers have temporarily slowed expansion plans and hiring amid uncertainty around tariff impacts.
• Payroll growth slowed slightly in May across some trade-exposed sectors—including manufacturing, warehousing, wholesale, and retail—possibly early signs of pressure.
• Household data showed a reduction in employment in May, but the rise in unemployment was negated by workers exiting the labor force.
• Jobless claims rose through the end of May, but the pace indicates gradual cooling and difficulty for job seeke