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13 August 2026 / Report
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Copy LinkThe regional distribution of global economic growth is shifting. The impact of war is weighing heavily on some economies, but Artificial Intelligence (AI) investment is bolstering growth elsewhere. While The Conference Board’s forecast for 2026 global real GDP growth remains 2.8% y/y, there are sizable upgrades and downgrades to our underlying regional projections.
The war in the Middle East has re-intensified and H1 national accounts data for numerous Gulf economies show that the impact is staggering. Massive disruptions to hydrocarbon production and exports are to blame. Given these developments, the 2026 forecast for the Gulf Region has been pushed into negative territory.
Simultaneously, ongoing investments in AI infrastructure in the United States and elsewhere are generating tremendous demand for semiconductors, memory, and other ICT products. Economies that produce these products are reporting record exports and spikes in GDP growth. Given this ongoing trend, the 2026 forecast for many Asian economies has been upgraded once again.
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