Following global growth of 3.3% in 2024, growth is on track to ease to 3.2% in 2025. Next year, The Conference Board projects that the global economy will expand by just 2.9% before rebounding somewhat to 3.0% in 2027.
For many economies around the world, the negative shock to growth associated with US tariffs has yet to fully manifest. Surges in exports to the US, resulting from front-loaded demand and inventory stockpiling among US businesses before and during tariff announcements, resulted in strong growth rates in H1 2025 for many economies. However, we expect weaker numbers in Q4 2025 and early 2026 as the full weight of tariffs take their toll.

myTCB® Members get exclusive access to webcasts, publications, data and analysis, plus discounts to events.