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12 March 2026 / Article
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Copy LinkAs 2026 unfolds, the global economy is facing mounting risks. Recent developments on the tariff front and the outbreak of war in the Middle East have intensified uncertainty and may undermine economic activity.
Real global GDP expanded by approximately 3.3% in 2025, but growth in 2026 is forecast to cool to 2.8% (a 0.1 percentage point downgrade from February’s forecast). A Supreme Court ruling that struck down some US tariffs associated with the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) resulted in a broad escalation in tariff rates using an alternative legal tool (Section 122), increasing uncertainty about US trade policy ahead. Additionally, the outbreak of war in the Middle East is disrupting the region’s economy and pushing global energy prices higher. At present, about 20% of the world’s oil supply cannot be shipped through the Strait of Hormuz due to the conflict.
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