Limited Passthrough from Energy Shock Solidifies Fed’s Status Quo
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Economic Data & Analysis

Limited Passthrough from Energy Shock Solidifies Fed’s Status Quo

10 June 2026 / Brief

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Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead®

  • May CPI demonstrated that the war-related energy price shock is weakening consumer purchasing power. However, broader inflation passthrough remains limited.

Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead®

  • May CPI demonstrated that the war-related energy price shock is weakening consumer purchasing power. However, broader inflation passthrough remains limited.

  • The energy price shock may still feed into a broader set of prices as the year progresses. Consumers are focusing on purchasing necessities tamping down demand for discretionary goods and services. This should help cap inflation for these items.
  • While prices of affected goods and services, such as gasoline, food, and airfares will likely remain elevated, the pace of price increases may have peaked.
  • The tariff-related price shock seems to be largely over as forecasted. Separately, the statistical quirk that boosted shelter prices in April has partially unwound in May. So, tariff- and shelter-related inflation should have limited impact on CPI ahead.
  • As long as inflation spillovers into a broader set of goods and services categories remain contained, the Fed will look through the supply shock by remaining firmly on hold likely through the rest of 2026.

Figure 1.  As Headline Inflation Surges, Passthrough into the Co

Author

Yelena Shulyatyeva, CFA

Yelena Shulyatyeva, CFA

Senior US Economist

Read BioYelena Shulyatyeva, CFA

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