Q4 ECI Wage Deceleration Slows
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Labor Markets Briefs

Q4 ECI Wage Deceleration Slows

07 February 2025 / Brief

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The Employment Cost Index (ECI) showed that wage growth continued to slow through the end of 2024. Yet, the pace of further deceleration remains uncertain, consistent with reports of continuing high labor costs from c-suite executives.

The Employment Cost Index (ECI) showed that wage growth continued to slow through the end of 2024. Yet, the pace of further deceleration remains uncertain, consistent with reports of continuing high labor costs from c-suite executives.

Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead®:

  • Private-sector wage growth slowed to 3.6% year-over-year in Q4 2024 , from 3.8% in Q3 2024.
  • Despite slower annual ECI growth, quarterly growth accelerated to 0.9% over Q4 from 0.8% in Q3, which is quite solid.
  • Wage pressures remain strongest in transportation, warehousing, and in-person services, while pressures across the finance and technology sectors have softened more substantially.
  • Tight labor supply, minimum wage increases, larger union contracts, and immigration limitations will likely sustain elevated wage growth into 2025, particularly in frontline services.

Figure 1. Pace of deceleration in wage growth is slowing

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Report Highlights:


Author

Mitchell Barnes

Mitchell Barnes

Economist, Labor Markets

Read BioMitchell Barnes

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