Falling Income Portends Weak Q2 Spending
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Economic Data & Analysis

Falling Income Portends Weak Q2 Spending

28 May 2026 / Brief

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Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead®

  • April’s personal income and spending data showed that income growth dwindled, consumer spending weakened, and inflation continued rising.

Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead®

  • April’s personal income and spending data showed that income growth dwindled, consumer spending weakened, and inflation continued rising.

  • While nominal income remained flat in April, adjusted for inflation and taxes it dropped 0.5% m/m, the third consecutive decline since February, likely a precursor of deceleration in consumer spending ahead.
  • Even as nominal spending increased in April, inflation-adjusted consumption barely rose as a surge in prices eroded consumer demand.
  • A large share of the increase in real spending was concentrated in recreation services, which could have been driven by early timing of the Easter holiday and related school breaks. Real goods spending declined and so did spending in many service categories.
  • With just one month of data for Q2, real consumption is tracking at a roughly 1.7% annualized pace in the current quarter, slightly above 1.4% in Q1. However, as higher energy prices continue to erode purchasing power, we estimate deterioration of personal consumption growth as the quarter progresses. TCB forecasts real P

Author

Yelena Shulyatyeva, CFA

Yelena Shulyatyeva, CFA

Senior US Economist

Read BioYelena Shulyatyeva, CFA

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