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12 February 2026 / Article
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Copy LinkThe performance of the U.S. economy continues to depend heavily on the strength of the consumer. Meanwhile, consumers remain under pressure at the start of 2026. Elevated prices, higher borrowing costs, and uneven income growth are forcing households to make tougher trade-offs, testing the resilience that has carried spending through recent years. While the labor market remains a key support, the margin for error is narrowing as savings buffers thin and credit becomes less available. The outlook for 2026 hinges on how long consumers can sustain demand amid these constraints—and what that means for growth, inflation, and policy. This year may prove to be a pivotal test of consumer endurance and its role as the backbone of the U.S. economy. The Year to Test Consumer Endurance
While The Conference Board maintains expectations of slower growth through late 2025 and early 2026 because of tariffs, there are sizable risks both to the upside and downside.
Fiscal policy will deliver mixed effects next year: growth support from accelerated depreciation and tax cuts will be partially offset by reduced green investment and cuts to Medicaid and Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP).
The monetary policy outlook will depend heavily on the composition of the Fed under a new chairperson. Kevin Warsh, a former Fed governor was nominated to become the next Fed chair after Chair Powell’s term expires in May. Warsh used to be known as someone who strongly focused on fighting inflation – a resolute inflation hawk, but now he seems more open to cutting interest rates even though inflation is not back to 2% yet.
The mid-term elections at the end of the year could prompt some federal government stimulus to address “affordabi
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PRESS RELEASE
The LEI for Germany Increased in December
February 16, 2026
PRESS RELEASE
LEI for Brazil Continued to Rise in January
February 13, 2026
PRESS RELEASE
The LEI for France Increased in December
February 13, 2026
PRESS RELEASE
The LEI for the UK remained unchanged in December
February 12, 2026
PRESS RELEASE
LEI for Australia Rose in December
February 12, 2026
PRESS RELEASE
LEI for Japan rose in December
February 11, 2026
All release times displayed are Eastern Time
Note: Due to the US federal government shutdown, all further releases for The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI), The Conference Board-Lightcast Help Wanted OnLine® Index (HWOL Index), The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® of the US (US LEI) and The Conference Board Global Leading Economic Index® (Global LEI) data may be delayed.
This report identifies trends to help businesses prepare for an environment with more challenges for labor and capital but improvements in productivity growth.
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