Stockpiling Crushes Q1 GDP, Details Show Solid Growth
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GDP fell in Q1, but looking through the tariff-related dislocations in consumer and business behavior, the underlying pace of growth remained solid.

Stockpiling Crushes Q1 GDP, Details Show Solid Growth

April 30, 2025

GDP fell in Q1, but looking through the tariff-related dislocations in consumer and business behavior, the underlying pace of growth remained solid.

Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead®

  • The economy contracting in the beginning of 2024 reflected massive dislocations in the underlying components of growth, highlighting elevated uncertainty about economic outlook for this year.
  • The decline in real GDP headline growth (first contraction since Q1 2022) resulted from surging imports, which enter the national accounts with a negative sign. Massive stockpiling on the part of businesses ahead of tariffs led to a surge in inventories and business investment, while consumers continued to spend on services, albeit at a slower rate.
  • Weakness in federal government spending on defense was a surprise to us and may reverse in the following quarters.
  • GDP excluding volatile trade and inventory contributions, the gauge which is considered a better reflection of the underlying strength in the economy, increased at a solid 2.3% q/q saar.
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Author

Yelena Shulyatyeva

Yelena Shulyatyeva

Senior US Economist

Read BioYelena Shulyatyeva

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