July spending and inflation data consistent with rate cuts
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Global Economic Outlook

July spending and inflation data consistent with rate cuts

30 August 2024 / Brief

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Real consumer spending rose in July and inflation readings pointed to a gradual convergence to the Fed’s 2% target. Real disposable personal income growth grew modestly in the month, but savings rates remained very low, and interest payments on debt as a share of income remained elevated. Spending data at the onset of Q3 have been strong, but we remain concerned about the sustainability of this trend. Inflation data for July were consistent with the gradual deflationary narrative that has held over the course of the summer. We continue to expect the Fed to start cutting interest rates in September.

Real consumer spending rose in July and inflation readings pointed to a gradual convergence to the Fed’s 2% target. Real disposable personal income growth grew modestly in the month, but savings rates remained very low, and interest payments on debt as a share of income remained elevated. Spending data at the onset of Q3 have been strong, but we remain concerned about the sustainability of this trend. Inflation data for July were consistent with the gradual deflationary narrative that has held over the course of the summer. We continue to expect the Fed to start cutting interest rates in September.

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Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead®™

  • The Fed should be pleased with much of the details of today’s report. We continue to forecast a 25 bps rate cut in September, followed by two additional 25 bps cuts in November and December.
  • The Fed’s preferred inflation gauges were little changed from the June report. However, these numbers are consistent with a gradual convergence to the Fed’s 2% inflation target sometime in mid-2025.
  • Consumer spending rose at the start of Q3, but income growth was tepid and household savings and debt remain concerning. We continue to forecast a slowdown in consumer spending in H2 2024.
  • The Fed may also be concerned about the clear rotation in spending away from wants towards needs that are likely being financed with debt.

Author

Erik Lundh

Erik Lundh

Senior Economist, Global

Read BioErik Lundh

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