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Timely insights from the Economy, Strategy & Finance Center
Real consumer spending rose in July and inflation readings pointed to a gradual convergence to the Fed’s 2% target. Real disposable personal income growth grew modestly in the month, but savings rates remained very low, and interest payments on debt as a share of income remained elevated. Spending data at the onset of Q3 have been strong, but we remain concerned about the sustainability of this trend. Inflation data for July were consistent with the gradual deflationary narrative that has held over the course of the summer. We continue to expect the Fed to start cutting interest rates in September.
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Downgraded global GDP forecast, but no recession expected
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The global supply chain disruption associated with the COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in production delays, shortages, and a spike in inflation in world.
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The Conference Board recently released its updated 2022 Global Economic Outlook.
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PRESS RELEASE
LEI for China Decreased for a Third Month in June
July 24, 2025
PRESS RELEASE
LEI for India Ticked up in June
July 22, 2025
PRESS RELEASE
US Leading Economic Index® Declined in June
July 21, 2025
PRESS RELEASE
The LEI for France Ticks Up in May
July 18, 2025
PRESS RELEASE
LEI for Mexico Increased in June
July 18, 2025
PRESS RELEASE
LEI for the Euro Area Decreased in June
July 17, 2025
All release times displayed are Eastern Time
Global growth is expected to slow over the next decade relative to the prior ten years.
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Economy Watch: US View (July 2025)
July 17, 2025 | Article
Retail Sales Show Consumer Resilience amid Tariffs
July 17, 2025 | Brief
A Tale of Two CPIs: Goods Inflation Dwarfed by Services
July 15, 2025 | Brief
Economy Watch: Global and Emerging Markets View (July 2025)
July 14, 2025 | Article
Economy Watch: European View (July 2025)
July 11, 2025 | Article
July 11, 2025 | Article
Economy Watch: US Public Policy and the Economy
April 09, 2025
US Economic Volatility in 2025
February 12, 2025
The Long-term Economic Outlook for the US, Europe, and China
December 11, 2024
The 2025 Global Economic Outlook
November 13, 2024
The Evolving Economic Outlook for Europe
July 10, 2024
The Economic Outlook for Europe
July 12, 2023
