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Timely insights from the Economy, Strategy & Finance Center
Real consumer spending rose in July and inflation readings pointed to a gradual convergence to the Fed’s 2% target. Real disposable personal income growth grew modestly in the month, but savings rates remained very low, and interest payments on debt as a share of income remained elevated. Spending data at the onset of Q3 have been strong, but we remain concerned about the sustainability of this trend. Inflation data for July were consistent with the gradual deflationary narrative that has held over the course of the summer. We continue to expect the Fed to start cutting interest rates in September.
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PRESS RELEASE
LEI for Brazil Decreased Again in July
August 15, 2025
PRESS RELEASE
LEI for the UK Continued to Fall in June
August 14, 2025
PRESS RELEASE
LEI for Australia Increased Again in June
August 14, 2025
PRESS RELEASE
The LEI for Germany Flat in June
August 13, 2025
PRESS RELEASE
LEI for Japan Increased in June
August 12, 2025
PRESS RELEASE
LEI for Spain Held Steady in June
August 08, 2025
All release times displayed are Eastern Time
Global growth is expected to slow over the next decade relative to the prior ten years.
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Pre-Aug 1 Tariff Buying Likely Boosted July Retail Sales
August 15, 2025 | Brief
August 13, 2025 | Article
July CPI data showed that tariffs continued to creep into data
August 12, 2025 | Brief
Economy Watch: US View (August 2025)
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The Conference Board Economic Forecast for the US Economy
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Economy Watch: US Public Policy and the Economy
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US Economic Volatility in 2025
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The Long-term Economic Outlook for the US, Europe, and China
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The 2025 Global Economic Outlook
November 13, 2024
The Evolving Economic Outlook for Europe
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The Economic Outlook for Europe
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