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While the prospects for a ‘soft landing’ have risen, The Conference Board believes it is more probable that the US economy will slip into a short and shallow recession in early 2024. Consumer spending was strong over the summer period but is beginning to cool. Moderating real income gains, falling savings and rising debt will likely further curb consumer spending heading into 2024. US labor market tightness is moderating according to the November jobs report. As the economy cools in early 2024 so too will the labor market. On inflation, progress is being made, but the path to 2% will be long and bumpy. We believe the Fed Funds Rate has peaked, but don’t foresee any cuts until mid-2024.
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Economy Watch: US View (July 2024)
July 26, 2024
Economy Watch: US View (June 2024)
June 24, 2024
Economy Watch: US View (May 2024)
May 21, 2024
Economy Watch: US View (April 2024)
April 16, 2024
Economy Watch: US View (March 2024)
March 19, 2024
Economy Watch: US View (February 2024)
February 22, 2024
Charts
Preliminary PMI indices show no change in weak DM growth momentum in November
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How Might the World Fall Back into Recession?
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Passing increases downstream, cutting costs, and absorbing price increases into profit margins are the chief ways to manage rising input costs. Few see changing
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Downgraded global GDP forecast, but no recession expected
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US continues to lead global productivity race
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The Global Economic Fallout of the Ukraine Invasion
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The global supply chain disruption associated with the COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in production delays, shortages, and a spike in inflation in world.
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The Conference Board recently released its updated 2022 Global Economic Outlook.
LEARN MOREJuly 18, 2024
PRESS RELEASE
LEI for China Declined in June
July 25, 2024
PRESS RELEASE
LEI for India Inched Up in June
July 23, 2024
PRESS RELEASE
LEI for Australia Inched Up in May
July 19, 2024
PRESS RELEASE
LEI for Mexico Decreased Again
July 19, 2024
PRESS RELEASE
LEI for France Decreases in May
July 17, 2024
PRESS RELEASE
LEI for the Euro Area Fell Further in June
July 16, 2024
All release times displayed are Eastern Time
Global growth is expected to slow over the next decade relative to the prior ten years.
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Economy Watch: Emerging Markets View (July 2024)
July 26, 2024 | Brief
Economy Watch: European View (July 2024)
July 26, 2024 | Brief
Economy Watch: US View (July 2024)
July 26, 2024 | Brief
The Conference Board Economic Forecast for the US Economy
July 11, 2024 | Brief
China’s economic activity remained largely flat in May
June 27, 2024 | Report
The Evolving Economic Outlook for Europe
July 10, 2024 11:00 AM ET (New York)
The Economic Outlook for Europe
July 12, 2023 11:00 AM ET (New York)
The Economic Outlook for India and MENA
June 14, 2023 11:00 AM ET (New York)
How Severe is the Banking Crisis?
April 12, 2023 11:00 AM ET (New York)