Don’t Dismiss February PCE as Old News
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Economic Data & Analysis

Don’t Dismiss February PCE as Old News

09 April 2026 / Brief

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Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead®

  • February’s personal income and spending data showed that income growth was tepid, consumer spending was weak, and inflation remained firm on the eve of the war in Iran.

Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead®

  • February’s personal income and spending data showed that income growth was tepid, consumer spending was weak, and inflation remained firm on the eve of the war in Iran.

  • While nominal spending increased, inflation-adjusted consumption barely rose in February (following a flat January reading) as inflation eroded consumer demand for discretionary spending.
  • The latest data implies significant downside risks to The Conference Board’s forecast for real consumption to grow at a pace of 1.7% q/q SAAR in Q1 2026.
  • Real consumption is tracking at a roughly 0.4% annualized pace in Q1, down from 1.9% in Q4. Higher energy prices in March may continue to erode purchasing power.
  • We estimate that if oil prices average $100 per barrel through the end of Q2 then US GDP growth may come in 0.3pp weaker than would have otherwise been the case. This scenario implies growth may slip below 2% for the year.
  • Our estimates also show that oil prices would need to rise to at least $140, and remain at that level for a prolonged period of time, to push the U.S. economy into recession. This remains a tail risk and i

Author

Yelena Shulyatyeva, CFA

Yelena Shulyatyeva, CFA

Senior US Economist

Read BioYelena Shulyatyeva, CFA

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