A sharp pullback in consumer spending in the beginning of the year, despite rising income, corroborates declining consumer confidence and supports our projections for economic growth to slow this year and for the next Fed move to be a rate cut.
Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead®™
Figure 1. Spending Growth Sharply Slows in Q1

Sources: Bureau of
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PRESS RELEASE
LEI for Mexico Decreased in October
November 19, 2025
PRESS RELEASE
LEI for India Increased in October
November 18, 2025
PRESS RELEASE
LEI for the Euro Area Ticked Down in October
November 17, 2025
PRESS RELEASE
The LEI for Germany Decreased in September
November 14, 2025
PRESS RELEASE
LEI for Brazil Increased in October
November 13, 2025
PRESS RELEASE
The LEI for France Increased in September
November 13, 2025
All release times displayed are Eastern Time
Note: Due to the US federal government shutdown, all further releases for The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI), The Conference Board-Lightcast Help Wanted OnLine® Index (HWOL Index), The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® of the US (US LEI) and The Conference Board Global Leading Economic Index® (Global LEI) data may be delayed. TCB will resume publication once updated US federal government data are released.
Global growth is expected to slow over the next decade relative to the prior ten years.
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