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After a dismal winter, consumer demand powered the economy back to a moderate growth path in the spring. Consumer demand should continue to deliver moderate overall economic growth, perhaps through the end of this year. While wage growth is not yet supportive of stronger consumption, the recent drop in oil prices will add to households' purchasing power. However, lower oil prices will continue to keep a lid on energy investment activity. Moderate GDP growth with low price increases but potential for rising labor costs is a recipe for weak profit growth, thus also limiting non energy capital investment. Downside risks from global developments are escalating, casting doubts on the Fed’s willingness to raise interest rates in September.