Global Forecast Update
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Global Forecast Update

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Global Growth Persists for Now

 

The Conference Board’s real GDP forecast for the global economy remains at 3.0% for 2025, but has been upgraded by 0.1 percentage point to 2.9% for 2026. This follows growth of 3.2% in 2024.

For many economies around the world, the negative shock to growth associated with US tariffs is only just beginning to manifest. Surges in exports to the US, resulting from front-loaded demand and inventory stockpiling among US businesses ahead of tariff implementation, resulted in strong growth rates in Q2 2025 for many economies. However, we expect weaker numbers in Q3 and Q4 2025 as the full weight of tariffs takes its toll. Exports to the US will atrophy as US consumers grapple with higher prices for imported goods. As the drag on growth from tariffs has shifted from mid-2025 to late-2025, there will likely be a rebound in growth early next year that lifts our 2026 forecast by 0.1 percentage point.

 

Global Growth Persists for Now

 

The Conference Board’s real GDP forecast for the global economy remains at 3.0% for 2025, but has been upgraded by 0.1 percentage point to 2.9% for 2026. This follows growth of 3.2% in 2024.

For many economies around the world, the negative shock to growth associated with US tariffs is only just beginning to manifest. Surges in exports to the US, resulting from front-loaded demand and inventory stockpiling among US businesses ahead of tariff implementation, resulted in strong growth rates in Q2 2025 for many economies. However, we expect weaker numbers in Q3 and Q4 2025 as the full weight of tariffs takes its toll. Exports to the US will atrophy as US consumers grapple with higher prices for imported goods. As the drag on growth from tariffs has shifted from mid-2025 to late-2025, there will likely be a rebound in growth early next year that lifts our 2026 forecast by 0.1 percentage point.

 

Authors

Erik Lundh

Erik Lundh Erik Lundh

Senior Economist, Global
The Conference Board

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Dana M. Peterson

Dana M. Peterson Dana M. Peterson

Chief Economist and Leader, Economy, Strategy & Fi…
The Conference Board

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Konstantinos Panitsas

Konstantinos Panitsas Konstantinos Panitsas

Economist
The Conference Board

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Yelena Shulyatyeva

Yelena Shulyatyeva Yelena Shulyatyeva

Senior US Economist
The Conference Board

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Fiona Liu

Fiona Liu Fiona Liu

Economist
The Conference Board

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