Global Business Cycle Indicators

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Released: Thursday, February 27, 2014

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the Euro Area increased 1.2 percent in January and now stands at 110.9 (2004=100), following a 0.3 percent increase in December 2013 and a 0.6 percent increase in November.

“The Leading Economic Index advanced for an eighth month in a row in January, a sign that the economy continues to improve despite current conditions, as measured by the Coincident Economic Index, taking a brief pause,” said Bert Colijn, Economist at The Conference Board. “The improvement in the LEI was broad-based, with business conditions and money supply making strong contributions. So far, the increased uncertainty about growth in emerging markets has not impacted on our outlook for the Euro Area, which remains at 1.1 percent growth for 2014.”

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the Euro Area, which measures current economic activity, increased 0.1 percent in January, according to preliminary estimates. The index now stands at 101.1* (2004 = 100). The CEI decreased 0.3 percent in December 2013 and increased 0.4 percent in November.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the Euro Area  

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for the Euro Area was launched in January 2009. Plotted back to 1987, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the business cycle of the bloc of countries that now constitute the Euro Area, defined by the common currency zone.

The Conference Board currently produces leading economic indexes for twelve other individual countries, including Australia, China, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain, the U.K., India, Brazil and the U.S.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for the Euro Area include:

• Economic Sentiment Index (source: European Commission DG-ECFIN)
• Index of Residential Building Permits Granted (source: Eurostat)
  EURO STOXX® Index (source: STOXX Limited)
• Money Supply (M2) (source: European Central Bank)
• Interest Rate Spread (source: European Central Bank)
• Eurozone Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (source: Markit Economics)
• Eurozone Service Sector Future Business Activity Expectations Index (source: Markit Economics)  

To view The Conference Board calendar for 2014 indicator releases:
www.conference-board.org/data/

* Series in The Conference Board LEI for the Euro Area that are based on The Conference Board estimates are real money supply and residential building permits. All series in The Conference Board CEI for the Euro Area are based on The Conference Board estimates (employment, industrial production, retail trade, and manufacturing turnover).

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