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Released: Wednesday, November 25, 2015

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the Euro Area increased 0.4 percent to 108.2 (2010=100) in October, following no change in September and a 0.1 percent increase in August.

“The LEI for the Euro Area increased in October, with the yield spread, consumer expectations and stock prices as the major drivers of the improvement. Both the LEI and the CEI have returned to levels last seen in July 2011, at the outset of the most recent recession in the Euro Area.” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. “Overall, the growth in the LEI suggests the economic expansion should continue into 2016, unless negative sentiment or the weakness in industrial activity and manufacturing new orders becomes more persistent.”


The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the Euro Area, which measures current economic activity, was unchanged in October. The index now stands at 100.8* (2010 = 100). The CEI increased 0.1 percent in September and remained unchanged in August.


About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the Euro Area

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for the Euro Area was launched in January 2009. Plotted back to 1987, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the business cycle of the bloc of countries that now constitute the Euro Area, defined by the common currency zone.


The eight components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for the Euro Area include:

Interest Rate Spread (source: European Central Bank)
Consumer expectation of general economic condition of next 12 months (source: European Commission)
Index of Residential Building Permits Granted (source: Eurostat)
EURO STOXX® Index (source: STOXX Limited)
Systemic Stress Composite Indicator (source: European Central Bank)
Capital Goods New Orders, index (source: European Central Bank)
Markit® Manufacturing New Orders Index (source: Markit Economics)
Markit® Business Expectations Index, Service (source: Markit Economics)


Series in The Conference Board LEI for the Euro Area that are based on The Conference Board estimates are capital goods new orders and residential building permits. All series in The Conference Board CEI for the Euro Area are based on The Conference Board estimates (employment, industrial production, retail trade, and manufacturing turnover).

To view The Conference Board calendar for 2015 indicator releases:

The Conference Board currently produces leading economic indexes for twelve other individual countries, including Australia, Brazil, China, France, Germany, India, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain, the U.K. and the U.S.


About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world’s leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.

The next release is scheduled for Wednesday, December 23 at 3:30 PM; 9:30 AM. US time.

Professional Contacts at The Conference Board:

Indicator Program:

Media Contacts:

Carol Courter:
1 212 339 0232

Jonathan Liu:
1 212 339 0257

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Technical Notes
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Press Release
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Straight Talk November 2015

StraightTalk® Global Economic Outlook 2016: Escaping the Global Economy's Holding Pattern

US economy running faster than trend now and through at least first half 2016

The long-term trend rate of growth for the US economy is about 2 percent. The economy is growing faster than that that right now, perhaps 2.5 percent annualized and this faster pace could well continue through the first half of 2016.

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