Global Business Cycle Indicators
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Released: Thursday, May 28, 2015
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the Euro Area increased 0.5 percent to 105.9 (2010=100) in April, following a 0.7 percent increase in March and a 0.6 percent increase in February.
“The outlook for the European economy remains positive in the months ahead as the Leading Economic Index for the Euro Area registered a large gain in April, the sixth increase in a row,” says Bert Colijn, Senior Economist at The Conference Board. “Seven out of eight indicators contributed positively to the index. Although the rebound in gas prices has reduced some of the real wage gains of the past months, consumer confidence is one of the strongest drivers of the positive outlook. The improvements in the financial system, which could spur investment, are also adding to optimism about the Euro Area economy for the second half of the year – leaving political volatility as the main source of risks that could impact the recovery in Europe.”
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the Euro Area, which measures current economic activity, also increased in March. The index now stands at 100.3* (2010 = 100). The CEI was unchanged in March and increased 0.1 percent in February.
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the Euro Area
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for the Euro Area was launched in January 2009. Plotted back to 1987, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the business cycle of the bloc of countries that now constitute the Euro Area, defined by the common currency zone.
The eight components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for the Euro Area include:
Interest Rate Spread (source: European Central Bank)
Consumer expectation of general economic condition of next 12 months (source: European Commission)
Index of Residential Building Permits Granted (source: Eurostat)
EURO STOXX® Index (source: STOXX Limited)
Systemic Stress Composite Indicator (source: European Central Bank)
Capital Goods New Orders, index (source: European Central Bank)
Markit Manufacturing New Orders Index (source: Markit Economics)
Markit Business Expectations Index, Service (source: Markit Economics)
Series in The Conference Board LEI for the Euro Area that are based on The Conference Board estimates are capital goods new orders and residential building permits. All series in The Conference Board CEI for the Euro Area are based on The Conference Board estimates (employment, industrial production, retail trade, and manufacturing turnover).
To view The Conference Board calendar for 2015 indicator releases:
The Conference Board currently produces leading economic indexes for twelve other individual countries, including Australia, Brazil, China, France, Germany, India, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain, the U.K. and the U.S.
About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world’s leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.
Professional Contacts at The Conference Board:
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1 212 339 0232
1 212 339 0257
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