Job Loss Risk Index: Which Industries Will Suffer the Greatest Layoffs?
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Job Loss Risk Index: Which Industries Will Suffer the Greatest Layoffs?

29 March 2023 / Report

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Amid the anticipated US recession, job losses are expected to vary widely by industry. The Conference Board Job Loss Risk Index—which uses multiple indicators that influence job losses and drive differences across industries—estimates that information services; transportation & warehousing; construction; and repair, personal & other services may be at the greatest risk of job losses. Government; private education services; health care & social assistance; and accommodation & food services may be the least at risk.

Members of The Conference Board can access all underlying data of the Job Loss Risk Index by Industry in the Excel workbook here.

Amid the anticipated US recession, job losses are expected to vary widely by industry. The Conference Board Job Loss Risk Index—which uses multiple indicators that influence job losses and drive differences across industries—estimates that information services; transportation & warehousing; construction; and repair, personal & other services may be at the greatest risk of job losses. Government; private education services; health care & social assistance; and accommodation & food services may be the least at risk.

Members of The Conference Board can access all underlying data of the Job Loss Risk Index by Industry in the Excel workbook here.

Insights for What’s Ahead

  • The information services sector is estimated to have the highest risk of job losses amid the projected upcoming recession, according to The Conference Board Job Loss Risk Index. Employment in the industry grew rapidly during the pandemic as the adoption of technologies including telework, e-commerce, and distance learning fueled growth expectations and stock prices for tech companies, which encompass a large share of the information industry. Valuations of high-growth companies are more sensitive to interest rate hikes as these firms are often highly leveraged. As such, rising interest rates increase the cost of borrowing and servicing debt. With the Federal Reserve swiftly raising interest rates to control inflation, valuations are down, and companies have already started layoffs. Layoffs and hiring freezes are expected to continue in the industry during a possible recession.
  • Workers in transpo

Authors

Frank Steemers

Frank Steemers Frank Steemers

Former Senior Economist
The Conference Board

Read Bio

Will Baltrus

Will Baltrus Will Baltrus

Former Associate Economist
The Conference Board

Read Bio

Selcuk Eren

Selcuk Eren Selcuk Eren

Former Senior Economist
The Conference Board

Read Bio

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