July CPI Eases, But Energy Risks Linger
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Economic Data & Analysis

July CPI Eases, But Energy Risks Linger

12 August 2026 / Brief

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Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead®

  • July’s CPI report further reduced the likelihood that the FOMC will need to raise policy rates at its September meeting, supporting the TCB projection for the Fed to remain on hold in 2026.

Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead®

  • July’s CPI report further reduced the likelihood that the FOMC will need to raise policy rates at its September meeting, supporting the TCB projection for the Fed to remain on hold in 2026.

  • Still, continued progress on inflation will be needed. Given ongoing hostilities in the Middle East, the risk is that energy inflation could filter deeper into a broader set of consumer prices – especially if the conflict lasts.
  • Gasoline prices climbed over much of July, but the average for the full month remained lower than the month prior resulting in a downtick in energy inflation. Looking ahead to the August CPI, this trend may reverse and result in higher energy inflation.
  • While inflationary pressures are generally easing, overall price levels remain elevated. This affordability burden will continue to weigh on households and limit consumer spending growth.

Figure 1.  July CPI Shows Subsiding Inflation

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Source: BLS, The Conference Board, 2026

Report Highlights

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Author

Erik Lundh

Erik Lundh

Senior Economist, Global

Read BioErik Lundh

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