Policy Backgrounders

The US Presidential Candidates’ Positions on Trade

September 20, 2024

International trade has been an important issue in the Presidential election, with former President Trump calling for “universal” tariffs—and far higher tariffs on Chinese goods—as a principal theme of his campaign. In contrast, Vice President Harris has said relatively little directly on trade since she became the nominee, except to join in opposition to the proposed purchase of US Steel by Nippon Steel.

Key Insights

• Former President Trump has proposed “universal” tariffs of 10-20 percent and tariffs on Chinese goods of 60 percent or more. The plan as described has no exceptions, but it would clearly contravene current US free trade agreements, and some exceptions would likely be made in practice.
• The President’s powers on imposing tariffs without Congressional approval are broad, giving credence to the view that he would try to impose some form of universal tariff, which could be highly inflationary and impact US supply chains.
• Vice President Harris would broadly continue the Administration’s trade policies, including its current tariffs on certain Chinese goods. There is a possibility she might be more open to discussions on market access, particularly on clean energy goods, depending on the results of the Congressional election.
• Whichever candidate wins, renegotiation of the US-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) trade agreement in 2026 will be a major issue for the next Administration.