2021 US: The US economy will recover from COVID-19, but it may be forever changed

Following signs of improvement in Q3 2020, The Conference Board expects a lull in the pace of recovery Q4 2020. Gains in consumption will be limited by high unemployment rates but will likely accelerate again in 2021 as the labor market heals. In the medium term, a contraction in the quantity of labor due to the pandemic and the exiting of baby boomers from the labor force will hinder US economic growth potential between 2020 and 2023 (the COVID-19 period). Real GDP growth should meaningfully improve between 2024 and 2030 as these labor market effects wane somewhat and productivity growth accelerates.