China Consumption Monthly Roundup | September 2023 Chartbook
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China Consumption Monthly Roundup | September 2023 Chartbook

27 September 2023 / Report

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Our Monthly Consumption Roundup tracks near-term consumption trends and underlying key drivers for China. Learn more about the key highlights for September.

Trusted Insights for What's Ahead™

  • August saw an improvement in retail sales, driven by a rebound in offline sales of some goods, which was more than enough to offset a growth deceleration in online sales. Sales of passenger vehicles did particularly well, benefiting from a series of price cuts by car manufacturers and ongoing policy support. On a positive note, consumer prices went back into positive territory, indicating that deflation pressure eased marginally. 
  • Policy support has not been enough to help the property sector bottom out from its current downturn, with sales of new houses still experiencing negative growth. This, along with the very high level of saving deposits, suggests that households remain cautious about the outlook.
  • Looking ahead, we believe that it will be difficult for Chinese consumption to maintain its August growth momentum. The economy is facing a series of headwinds that are dragging down growth levels, and keeping confidence levels down, such as the ongoing downturn of the property sector, increasing pressures on industrial activity, and weakening of hiring intentions. Moreover, in an environment of low confidence levels, the effect of the support policies that the government has been rolling out (e.g., cutting short-term interest rates and reserve requirement ratio rates and easing property buying restrictions) is likely to be limited. 
  • Engineering a sustainable recovery in consumption requires addressing deep-seated structural imbalances to reduce Chinese households’ need to save for precautionary reasons, such as strengthening the national social security net. 

 

Our Monthly Consumption Roundup tracks near-term consumption trends and underlying key drivers for China. Learn more about the key highlights for September.

Trusted Insights for What's Ahead™

  • August saw an improvement in retail sales, driven by a rebound in offline sales of some goods, which was more than enough to offset a growth deceleration in online sales. Sales of passenger vehicles did particularly well, benefiting from a series of price cuts by car manufacturers and ongoing policy support. On a positive note, consumer prices went back into positive territory, indicating that deflation pressure eased marginally. 
  • Policy support has not been enough to help the property sector bottom out from its current downturn, with sales of new houses still experiencing negative growth. This, along with the very high level of saving deposits, suggests that households remain cautious about the outlook.
  • Looking ahead, we believe that it will be difficult for Chinese consumption to maintain its August growth momentum. The economy is facing a series of headwinds that are dragging down growth levels, and keeping confidence levels down, such as the ongoing downturn of the property sector, increasing pressures on industrial activity, and weakening of hiring intentions. Moreover, in an environment of low confidence levels, the effect of the support policies that the government has been rolling out (e.g., cutting short-term interest rates and reserve requirement ratio rates and easing property buying restrictions) is likely to be limited. 
  • Engineering a sustainable recovery in consumption requires addressing deep-seated structural imbalances to reduce Chinese households’ need to save for precautionary reasons, such as strengthening the national social security net. 

 

Authors

Anke Schrader

Anke Schrader Anke Schrader

Former Research Director, Asia
The Conference Board

Read Bio

Fiona Liu

Fiona Liu Fiona Liu

Economist
The Conference Board

Read Bio

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