September 24, 2020 | Chart
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the United States continued to improve in August, but a recession signal derived from the index has continued to flash since March. This signal, generated using the “3Ds” rule (depth, duration, and diffusion), is activated when certain criteria in the overall LEI and its many components are met. A large decline (depth) in the six-month growth rate (duration) of the LEI is an early indication of a turning point in the economy (black line). A third key metric, diffusion, indicates whether the majority of the LEI’s components are helping or hurting the overall index (purple dots in chart). Though there’s a tight relationship between past LEI recession signals and the official recession chronology,* it can be difficult to pinpoint when a recession will end in real time. However, business leaders can use the LEI’s recession signal as a guide: when that warning light goes off, the US may be on the cusp of exiting the COVID-19 recession.
*As defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research
PRESS RELEASE
US Leading Economic Index® Fell in October
November 21, 2024
PRESS RELEASE
US Leading Economic Index® Declined in September
October 21, 2024
PRESS RELEASE
US Leading Economic Index® Inched Down Further in August
September 19, 2024
PRESS RELEASE
US Leading Economic Index® (LEI) Declined in July
August 19, 2024
PRESS RELEASE
US Leading Economic Index® (LEI) Fell Slightly in June
July 18, 2024
PRESS RELEASE
US Leading Economic Index® (LEI) Fell Again in May
June 21, 2024
All release times displayed are Eastern Time
Charts
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the US rose sharply in August and remains on a rapidly rising trajectory. The strengths among the leading indic…
LEARN MORECharts
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index®(LEI) for the US dropped 4.4 percent in April, following a decline of 7.4 percent in March.
LEARN MORETechnical Notes for the US LEI
November 21, 2024 | Guide & Reference
August US leading index points to continued economic growth
September 23, 2021 | Chart
US LEI improving, but recession signal remains
September 24, 2020 | Chart
LEI points to a deep recession with no sign of fast rebound
May 21, 2020 | Chart
The Long-term Economic Outlook for the US, Europe, and China
December 11, 2024 11:00 AM ET (New York)
The Evolving Economic Outlook for Europe
July 10, 2024 11:00 AM ET (New York)
What Are The Conference Board LEIs Telling Us About the Future?
April 10, 2024 11:00 AM ET (New York)
Inflation, Labor Markets, and the Fed
May 11, 2022 11:00 AM ET (New York)