The Outlook for Immigration Policy

The Administration has taken sweeping actions to reduce both legal and illegal entry into the US, driving sharp declines in encounters at the US border and inflows of authorized immigrants. However, labor shortages in key sectors may influence the direction of policy moving forward.

Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead^®

• The Administration’s actions have faced significant legal uncertainty, but courts have generally allowed many core elements of the Administration’s agenda to proceed while the challenges are adjudicated.

• Data indicate that both legal and illegal immigration decreased in 2025. Many stakeholders have raised concerns about labor shortages in key sectors and enrollment of international students at US universities.

• These trends may influence policy at the margins, but in response the Administration may pursue targeted changes rather than broad reforms of its approach.

• Compliance risk and operational uncertainty will remain elevated for employers amid shifting regulatory requirements, court decisions, and changing labor force needs.

• The direction of policy may be increasingly tied to broader economic conditions amid slowing job growth and global economic uncertainty.

Uncertain Expectations

The President made reshaping US immigration policy a core pillar of his first Administration, focusing on limiting both legal and illegal immigration. However, as the President prepared to start his second term in 2025, significant uncertainty surrounded policy the Administration would pursue and what impacts it would have on immigration flows. Analyzing the Administration’s actions since the start of President Trump’s second term provides insights into how this administration approaches immigration policy and what actions it may take in the future.

Pillars of the Administration’s Immigration Policy

On Inauguration Day in 2025, the President issued more than a dozen Executive Orders and Presidential Memoranda related to immigration, some restoring policies from his first term or rescinding Biden Administration orders and others introducing new policies.

Border Security & Enforcement

The President declared a national emergency at the southern border and directed the Defense Department to assign the US Northern Command to “seal the borders and maintain [US] sovereignty, territorial integrity, and security.” The Administration also began transporting some deportees to countries other than their countries of origin, so called “third country deportations.”

An Inauguration Day Executive Order directed DHS to expand the use of expedited removal processes for those entering the US unlawfully “to the fullest extent authorized by Congress,” which allows the individual to be removed without a hearing or other review of the determination that they should be removed. Litigation challenging this action is ongoing.¹ The President also issued a Proclamation in March 2025 invoking the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to fast-track the deportation of individuals allegedly affiliated with the Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua. Litigation regarding this use of the Alien Enemies Act is ongoing.² In January 2025 the President signed the Laken Riley Act, which mandates the detention of undocumented immigrants arrested or charged with theft-related crimes, including burglary, larceny, and shoplifting or any crime that results in the death or serious bodily injury of another person.

In June 2025, the President issued an Executive Order restricting nationals from 19 countries from entering the US, echoing a similar policy pursued in the President’s first term. In January 2026, the Administration additionally suspended the approval of immigrant visas (but not other types of visas) for people from 75 countries, arguing that it aims to ensure individuals from “high-risk countries do not utilize welfare in the United States.” By some estimates, the measure will block about half of all legal immigration to the US.³ This latest measure is currently being challenged in the Southern District of New York.⁴

The Administration has also launched large-scale and controversial immigration law enforcement operations in several US cities. These deployments have spawned lawsuits from a range of parties, including state and local officials, advocacy organizations, and individuals. Proposed reforms to ICE and its operations have also led to the ongoing partial government shutdown. In February, an Executive Order directed agencies to identify Federally-funded programs that may provide public benefits to unlawfully present individuals and strengthen eligibility verification. The Administration has also targeted “sanctuary cities,” which limit cooperation between local law enforcement and Federal immigration authorities. In addition, the President has sought to end birthright citizenship for those born to parents who are present in the US illegally. The Supreme Court will hear oral arguments in the case April 1.⁵

Education & Employment

Policy changes have also impacted employers and educational institutions. The Administration has implemented major reforms to the H-1B visa program, introducing a $100,000 fee for new petitions for workers located outside the US and replacing the random lottery with a system favoring positions with higher wages. The Administration also expanded workplace immigration raids in mid-2025, though according to press reports, concerns about impacts on business operations may be leading the Administration to shift this approach.⁶ These dynamics have also influenced the Administration’s approach to seasonal workers. In October, the Labor Department made changes to the H-2A visa program intended to help ease labor shortages in the agricultural sector.⁷ A bipartisan group of lawmakers – including some that typically favor tighter immigration policies – have also supported expanding the availability of temporary work visas to ease shortages in key sectors including agriculture and tourism.⁸

The Administration has also pursued significant changes to educational visas. For example, it has proposed eliminating the “duration of status” policy for student visas – which extends the visa for the duration of the student’s education – with a fixed 4-year maximum stay without applying for an extension.⁹ This change would create particular challenges for Ph.D. students, whose programs typically require six years.¹⁰

The Administration has expanded the use of social media in screening and vetting applicants for many visas, including student visas and H-1B visas.¹¹ It has also revoked visas for students and academics that have expressed pro-Palestinian views, though it is unclear from statements by Administration officials and court testimony how many visas were revoked and on what basis.¹²

Humanitarian Programs

The Administration has taken significant steps to restrict various humanitarian immigration programs. On Inauguration Day, the President revived the “Remain in Mexico” asylum policy, which requires that migrants arriving from Mexico making asylum claims had to wait in Mexico until their claims could be resolved (a process that can take years given the significant backlog in US immigration courts). In December, DHS paused all asylum decisions indefinitely.¹³

The Administration has also targeted refugee programs, indefinitely suspending the US Refugee Administration Program and canceling contracts with organizations that provide services such as housing and healthcare assistance for newly arrived refugees. The Administration has also sought to terminate Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for individuals from several countries, including Haiti, Syria, Afghanistan, and Venezuela. These steps are facing ongoing legal challenges.¹⁴

A November 2025 memo also indicated that DHS plans to rescreen more than 200,000 refugees admitted to the US during the Biden Administration.¹⁵ The Administration also suspended – and Congress declined to extend – the special immigrant visa program designed for individuals who worked for the US in Afghanistan following the shooting of two US National Guard members in Washington, DC.¹⁶ The Administration also announced increased vetting procedures from 19 countries it considers high risk.¹⁷

Outlook & Implications for Business

Many of the Administration’s actions have faced legal challenges or are legally untested, creating significant uncertainty for both the impacted individuals and employers. In some cases, courts have allowed policies to take effect while litigation is ongoing; in others, courts have blocked the actions temporarily. As a result, employers should carefully monitor developments in cases that may affect them.

Concerns about law enforcement actions and shifting immigration policies may be deterring both legal and illegal immigrants from entering the US in some cases, potentially affecting labor supply and business operations. Government data indicate that encounters at US borders declined to about 35,000 in January 2026, a 79% decline year over year.¹⁸ In addition, about 70,000 people are in ICE custody, up about 84% since last year.¹⁹ Data for the first half of 2025 also show nonimmigrant work visa issuance lagging by about 3% year-over-year.²⁰ Enrollment of international students at US universities may also be impacted – data from the Association of American Universities, for example, show that international student enrollment declined by 17% in the fall semester of 2025.²¹

Employers in certain sectors, including health care, construction, hospitality, and agriculture, have raised concerns about how reduced immigration is impacting labor shortages. A survey conducted by the Associated General Contractors of America found that 92% of firms struggle to fill positions and 28% said they were affected by immigration actions.²² Immigrants also account for about one in six hospital workers.²³ Farmers have also raised concerns about labor shortages. About 75% of unauthorized immigrants since 2021 have been of working age, but data show sharp declines in unauthorized immigrant employment since the start of 2025.²⁴ Given these trends, CED has long supported comprehensive immigration reform, as outlined in its Solutions Brief Immigration Reform: An Essential Key to Growth.

It is unclear how policymakers will respond to these concerns. Bipartisan groups of lawmakers – including those that generally favor more restrictive immigration measures in some cases – have proposed a range of options, including exempting healthcare workers from the H-1B visa fee²⁵ and increasing the availability of H-2A visas.²⁶ The Administration has also proposed changes to the H-2A program to address farm labor shortages²⁷ and expressed openness to reform some ICE tactics.²⁸ The President has also nominated a new DHS secretary.²⁹ However, it seems likely that the Administration will maintain its long-held positions, and a slowing economy and rising unemployment may reduce public pressure for change.³⁰