DHS Shutdown Continues with No Deal in Sight

Action: The shutdown of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has lasted for almost a month, with no end in sight despite mounting airport delays and increased national security concerns associated with the war in Iran.

Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead^®

• Last month, Congress passed a continuing resolution (CR) for DHS through February 13 to allow for additional negotiations on restrictions to DHS immigration operations. The deadline passed without any agreement on potential reforms, leading to the current shutdown of the agency.
• Congressional Democrats and the White House have not released many details on the specifics of their negotiations. The talks have fizzled since mid-February, with the White House saying the two sides remain far apart on substantive issues.¹
• In the meantime, the consequences of the shutdown are growing. The Transportation Security Administration (TSA) announced a suspension of TSA PreCheck before reversing course, though the Global Entry program remains paused.² DHS employees are set to miss their first complete paycheck of the shutdown,³ leading to long lines at US airports as TSA agents call in sick or stop showing up to work because of the lack of a paycheck.⁴
• The shutdown has also affected the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). DHS announced FEMA will scale back long-term rebuilding projects to focus solely on emergency operations during the shutdown.⁵ The Administration claims that FEMA’s Disaster Relief Fund is at a critical level amid the shutdown, with only $5 billion left in the fund, meaning any large-scale disaster could fully deplete the fund.⁶
• Recent events may pressure Congress to break the impasse. Some Republican lawmakers believe heightened risks from the war with Iran could pressure Democrats to compromise and reopen DHS.⁷ The expected confirmation of Senator Markwayne Mullin (R-OK) may also convince some Democrats to support reopening the agency.⁸
• Nevertheless, lawmakers still do not have sufficient votes for any DHS funding proposal. On March 5, the House narrowly passed a DHS funding bill without significant reforms by a vote of 221-209 (only four House Democrats voted in favor),⁹ which has no prospects for passage in the Senate. The Senate tried to do the same, but the measure was rejected by a vote of 51-45.¹⁰ On March 11, the Senate also rejected a motion from Democrats to fund all of DHS except for Immigration and Customs Enforcement and Customs and Border Protection.¹¹
• What this means for business: If the shutdown remains unresolved, expect operational friction rather than immediate shutdown of commerce. Businesses will need to evaluate and prepare for incremental slowdowns across aviation, cargo, and possibly border systems. Contingency planning for disaster response gaps will become more important as will anticipating unpredictability in regulatory coordination across Federal agencies. The economic risk is less about immediate paralysis and more about cumulative strain -- especially if an external shock intersects with already constrained DHS capacity.

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1. Myah Ward, “White House on DHS funding talks: 'Parties are still pretty far apart'”, Politico, February 17, 2026.