September 23, 2021 | Chart
The Conference Bord Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the US rose sharply in August and remains on a rapidly rising trajectory. The strengths among the leading indicators remained widespread in recent months. The gain in August was fueled by positive contributions from all components of the LEI except for consumer expectations for business conditions and average weekly manufacturing hours. The LEI is a gauge of the economic cycle in the next six to nine months.
As the severity of the current wave of infections ebbs over the coming weeks and months, the underlying short-term growth drivers that the LEI monitors suggest economic growth should remain robust heading into the new year. While the Delta variant—alongside rising inflation fears—could create headwinds for labor markets and the consumer spending outlook in the near term, the trend in the LEI is consistent with strong economic growth in the reminder of the year. Real GDP growth for 2021 is expected to reach nearly 6.0 percent year-over-year, before easing to a growth rate about 4.0 percent for 2022.
The next release of The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index® for the United States can be found here on October 21, 2021.
The LEI and related business cycle indicators (BCI) databases can be found here.
PRESS RELEASE
US Leading Economic Index® Fell in October
November 21, 2024
PRESS RELEASE
US Leading Economic Index® Declined in September
October 21, 2024
PRESS RELEASE
US Leading Economic Index® Inched Down Further in August
September 19, 2024
PRESS RELEASE
US Leading Economic Index® (LEI) Declined in July
August 19, 2024
PRESS RELEASE
US Leading Economic Index® (LEI) Fell Slightly in June
July 18, 2024
PRESS RELEASE
US Leading Economic Index® (LEI) Fell Again in May
June 21, 2024
All release times displayed are Eastern Time
Charts
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the United States continued to improve in August, but a recession signal derived from the index has continued t…
LEARN MORECharts
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index®(LEI) for the US dropped 4.4 percent in April, following a decline of 7.4 percent in March.
LEARN MORETechnical Notes for the US LEI
November 21, 2024 | Guide & Reference
August US leading index points to continued economic growth
September 23, 2021 | Chart
US LEI improving, but recession signal remains
September 24, 2020 | Chart
LEI points to a deep recession with no sign of fast rebound
May 21, 2020 | Chart
The Long-term Economic Outlook for the US, Europe, and China
December 11, 2024 11:00 AM ET (New York)
The Evolving Economic Outlook for Europe
July 10, 2024 11:00 AM ET (New York)
What Are The Conference Board LEIs Telling Us About the Future?
April 10, 2024 11:00 AM ET (New York)
Inflation, Labor Markets, and the Fed
May 11, 2022 11:00 AM ET (New York)