Global Leading Indicators

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for Japan decreased by 0.7 percent in March 2023 to 87.0 (2016=100), following a 0.2 percent decline in February. The LEI for Japan contracted by 5.3 percent in the six-month period ending in March 2023, following a 1.3 percent decline over the previous six months between March 2022 and September 2022.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for Japan edged up 0.1 percent in March 2023 to 99.4 (2016=100), after a 0.4 percent increase in February. The CEI for Japan fell by 0.8 percent over the six-month period from September 2022 to March 2023, after 0.2 percent decline in the previous six-month period between March 2022 and September 2022.

“The Japan LEI declined for a seventh consecutive month in March,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. “The recent drop was fueled by widespread weaknesses among non-financial components of the LEI. Relatively high inflation paired with slowing external demand pose risks that could further weaken Japan’s economic outlook. The Conference Board slightly downgraded its year-over-year real GDP growth forecast for Japan to 0.7 from 0.9 percent in 2023, with further deceleration projected in 2024.”

The LEI for Japan continued to decline

Declines in the LEI continued to be fueled by non-financial components

The Japan LEI annual growth rate fell deeper into negative territory

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for Japan: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by around 4 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Japan include: Operating Profits, Dwelling Units Started, Business Failures, Index of Overtime Worked, Stock Prices (TOPIX), Six Month Growth Rate of Labor Productivity, Tankan Business Conditions Survey, Money Supply, Yield Spread, and New Orders for Machinery and Construction.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers trusted insights for what’s ahead. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.tcb.org