Global Leading Indicators

About the Leading Economic Index and the Coincident Economic Index:

The Leading Economic Index provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for Japan increased by 0.6 percent in April 2024 to 88.1 (2016=100), after declining 0.2 percent in March.  As a result, over the six-month period ending in April 2024, the LEI for Japan inched up by 0.1 percent, a slight reversal from a 0.6 percent contraction over the previous six months.

 The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for Japan was unchanged in both March and April 2024 at 98.4 (2016=100). Over the six-month period from October 2023 to April 2024, the CEI for Japan fell by 0.2 percent, half the rate of decline of 0.4 percent over the previous six months.

 "Japan LEI bounced back in April, reaching the highest level since September 2023 and erasing a series of declines in the past five months” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. “Housing starts, which was a huge drag on LEI due to inflation pressures in the construction sector in the past few months, improved substantially. Suspension of transactions, which is an equivalent of bankruptcies, as well as new orders for machinery and construction also drove the Index higher. The April recovery in the LEI resulted in slight positive growth of the Index over the past six-month span and less negative growth on an annual basis. This suggests that economic headwinds, while still present, will not intensify. Following the negative growth in Q1 GDP, the Conference Board currently expects Japan’s economic growth in 2024 to be very modest.”