LEI for Japan Declined in March
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LEI for Japan Declined in March

Latest Press Release

Updated : 2024-05-09


About the Leading Economic Index and the Coincident Economic Index:

The Leading Economic Index provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index®(LEI) for Japan decreased by 0.2 percent in March 2024 to 87.3 (2016=100), after no change in February. Over the six-month period ending in March 2024, the LEI for Japan declined by 1.5 percent, after growing by 0.3 percent over the previous six months.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Japan was unchanged in March 2024 at 98.7 (2016=100), after a downwardly revised 0.2 percent increase in February. As a result, the CEI for Japan fell by 0.1 percent over the six-month period from September 2023 to March 2024, continuing the 0.2 percent decline between March and September 2023.

"The LEI for Japan resumed its downward trend in March,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. “A decline in housing starts, the increase in suspension of transactions, which is an equivalent of bankruptcies, and weaker labor productivity in manufacturing fueled March decline. The LEI has been decreasing slowly but continuously since September 2023, except in February when it was flat, resulting in negative six-month and annual growth rates of the LEI. However, the pace of contraction has slowed since a year ago. This suggests that headwinds to growth, while still present, have lessened a little. The recent depreciation of the yen, by over 10 percent since the beginning of the year against the dollar, which is not reflected in the LEI, is also likely to support exports. On the other hand, a persistently weak currency can have a negative impact on inflation, which would prompt stricter monetary stance, adding strain on growth. Overall, the Conference Board currently expects, that Japan annual GDP will grow at about 1.0 percent in 2024.”

 

The LEI for Japan fell in March while CEI was unchanged

 

Non-financial components drove the index decline

 

The annual growth rate of Japan’s LEI inched down in March, signaling continued downward pressures on growth

 

 

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Japan

The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by around 4 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

 

The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Japan include: Operating Profits, Dwelling Units Started, Suspension of transactions, Index of Overtime Worked, Stock Prices (TOPIX), Six Month Growth Rate of Labor Productivity, Tankan Business Conditions Survey, Money Supply, Yield Spread, and New Orders for Machinery and Construction.

 

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

 


About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead™. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. ConferenceBoard.org

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