Global Leading Indicators

For Release 11:00 AM ET, July 19, 2024

Using the Composite Indexes: The Leading Economic Index (LEI) provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for Mexico decreased by 0.6 percent in May 2024 to 119.5 (2016=100), after decreasing by 0.2 percent in April. Overall, the LEI contracted by 1.5 percent over the six-month period between November 2023 and May 2024, following a 2.3 percent contraction over the previous six months.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for Mexico increased by 0.2 percent in May 2024 to 117.4 (2016=100), after increasing by 0.4 percent in April. As a result, the CEI expanded by 0.4 percent over the six-month period between November 2023 and May 2024, a slower rate of growth than the 1.4 percent increase over the previous six months.

“The Mexico LEI decreased in May for the fourth consecutive month,” said Malala Lin, Economic Research Associate, at The Conference Board. “Over the past six months, the manufacturing opinion balance was the main source of the weakness in the LEI.  In May, the Index decrease can be attributed again to a weak opinion balance for manufacturing inventories but also to a lower price of oil and declining stock prices. Following the most recent decline, the six-month and annual growth rates remain negative, signaling continued headwinds ahead. The Conference Board currently expects an annual real GDP growth to slow to 2.1 percent in 2024 from 3.2 percent last year.”

The next release is scheduled for Tuesday, August 20, 2024, at 11 A.M. ET.