Economy Watch | Emerging Markets

Economy Watch: Emerging Markets View (June 2024)

June 24, 2024

TCB’s latest forecasts continue to point to a more stable global growth environment after a period of acute pandemic-related volatility. Our Emerging Economies Coincident Index fell back into ‘Recession’ territory, while the recessionary Leading Index showed a further loss of momentum. PMIs: PMI indices indicate that global economic activity gathered further momentum in May. Notably, China is driving the stronger EM trend.China: China’s growth momentum seems to be holding after the robust start to the year, but weak inflation highlights persistent excess supply. India: Prime Minister Modi was re-elected for a third term, but his party lost its comfortable 31-seat majority; meanwhile, the economy slowed in the first quarter. LATAM: Claudia Sheinbaum decisively won Mexico’s Presidential elections with more than 60% of the vote; Banco de Mexico is still waiting to cut interest rates again further. Eastern Europe: Turkey continued to enjoy robust growth despite high and rapidly accelerating inflation as central bank keeps policy rates well below inflation. Sub-Saharan Africa: Nigeria’s economy stalled in Q1, yet PMI Indices show a gradual recovery in economic activity through May across the key Sub-Saharan economies.