Economy Watch: US View (June 2024)
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Economy Watch | United States

Monthly updates on the state of the economy in the United States

Economy Watch: US View (June 2024)

June 24, 2024 | Brief

The US economy started 2024 on a softer note than anticipated as elevated inflation and interest rates continued to weigh on growth. While we do not forecast a recession in 2024, we do expect consumer spending growth to cool further and for overall GDP growth to slow to under 1% over the Q2 to Q3 2024 period. Following stalled progress on inflation in Q1 2024, April & May data show renewed relief. However, we do not expect the Fed’s 2% target to be achieved until Q2 2025. Interest rates should fall starting in late 2024 but may ultimately stabilize at levels exceeding pre-pandemic averages.

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