Q4 2022 GDP came in stronger than expected due to volatility in trade and inventory data. Core economic growth was weaker than topline GDP suggested. Still, unseasonably warm weather boosted economic activity in January. We expect this tailwind to dissipate in February and March. Inflation also intensified in January, but the progress seen in H2 2022 should continue. The path to the Fed’s 2% inflation target will be long and winding. We expect the US economy to slip into a short and mild recession in early 2023, but the precise timing is difficult to determine.