Growth Slowed In December, But Leading Indicators Suggest A Near-Term Uptick

Official GDP growth bounced up to 6.9 percent y-o-y in 2017, the first “rebound” in seven years. The year also delivered some signs of progress in the policy-led containment of financial sector risks: debt growth slowed and housing markets cooled off, but not by much. In 2018, aggregate growth is likely to slow moderately from 2017, as deleveraging pressures build, and “de-risking” imperatives intensify in the financial sector. Deleveraging has a long way to go, despite the claims of major progress in the media. The confluence of these two pressures will drag on investment growth, which will bear down on aggregate growth. Amid this relative topline stability, the risks of policy-induced volatility are rising. The reported Yunnan provincial SOE debt default and HNA’s liquidity crunch are cases in point. Members will need to keep a close eye on the tightening liquidity environment and the impact it may have on forward order books and customer and channel payables.