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Recession fears subside, reflecting expectations for a better second quarter after a dismal first quarter. The job and housing markets remained resilient, supporting moderate spending growth. Business investment is and likely will remain weak in 2016. With wages beginning to pick up, but labor productivity still weak, corporate profit margins are being squeezed. On balance, leading indicators are pointing to growth, even if not robust growth. We see low risk of recession in 2016, but possibly the risks could rise a little higher in 2017.