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As signaled by the latest data from The Conference Board Leading Economic Index®, the US economy is performing a little above trend at midyear. While consumer prospects are shaping up positively, business investment continues to be weak. With more consumer demand, investment might finally get some push. Trade reforms could also indirectly have an effect on growth by encouraging specialization, which would strengthen innovation and reverse the productivity decline. Still, the Fed may pull the trigger on a rate hike as early as this autumn.