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The Conference Board Economics Watch® United States View

The economy is on about 2.5 percent growth trend – with weather reducing the pace in the first quarter, potentially pushing up the second quarter. The job market remains surprisingly strong, reinforcing expectations for faster wage growth and solid domestic demand. However, the good news on the consumer side is not such good news on the business side. And stronger domestic demand with weakness elsewhere pushes the dollar higher, which is good for consumers, but not for trade or overall fundamental economic growth. Still, the broad expectation remains that the Fed rate lift-off will begin some time this year.

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