Support our nonpartisan, nonprofit research and insights which help leaders address societal challenges.Donate
The year 2014 ends just above trend at 3 percent annualized GDP growth. Strong jobs growth and lower oil prices are making consumers more optimistic and willing to spend, brightening the outlook for 2015. More wage growth, however, is more important than low gasoline prices. The good news is that the recent 2 percent trend growth in wages will soon quicken, as the labor market continues to tighten. Inflation, however, is unlikely to quicken. And that's the stage for a confrontation between higher labor costs and squeezed profit margins.