As witnessed by the August 2015 “surprise devaluation” of the RMB, developments in China’s economy now propagate globally, immediately. Against the backdrop of momentous economic transition in China, more disruptions are expected. One focus of this research will be to assess the old adage, but this time applied to China: “If China catches cold” what happens to the global economy?” But in addition to these geo-economic influences that are essentially a consequence of China’s own domestic economic conditions, China has also announced a slew of large scale programs to project its economic development and influence globally. These include, for example: stated aspirations to break into the Internet of Things space, spanning semiconductors to cloud computing, and massively scaled enterprise and consumer platforms enabled by state support; high-speed rail, civic construction and nuclear power exports; huge development aid programs in Africa; and massive state-backed M&A programs, the ChemChina-Syngenta deal being the current posterchild. These deliberate geo-economic-exertions, assuming they can be financed and executed, portend to significantly alter the shape of global markets and value chains. This research will identify and dimension the global economy exposures to this gamut of outbound programs, and identify the risks and opportunities for global business therein.

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Erik Lundh | Ethan Cramer-Flood | David Hoffman

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