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As witnessed by the August 2015 “surprise devaluation” of the RMB, developments in China’s economy now propagate globally, immediately. Against the backdrop of momentous economic transition in China, more disruptions are expected. One focus of this research will be to assess the old adage, but this time applied to China: “If China catches cold” what happens to the global economy?” But in addition to these geo-economic influences that are essentially a consequence of China’s own domestic economic conditions, China has also announced a slew of large scale programs to project its economic development and influence globally. These include, for example: stated aspirations to break into the Internet of Things space, spanning semiconductors to cloud computing, and massively scaled enterprise and consumer platforms enabled by state support; high-speed rail, civic construction and nuclear power exports; huge development aid programs in Africa; and massive state-backed M&A programs, the ChemChina-Syngenta deal being the current posterchild. These deliberate geo-economic-exertions, assuming they can be financed and executed, portend to significantly alter the shape of global markets and value chains. This research will identify and dimension the global economy exposures to this gamut of outbound programs, and identify the risks and opportunities for global business therein.
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Erik Lundh | Ethan Cramer-Flood | David Hoffman
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Publications
- China Center Chart Dive: If China Trade Sneezes, Where are Asian countries Vulnerable to Catching a Cold?
- China Center Quick Note: The Belt and Road— Globalization with Chinese Characteristics
- China Center Chart Dive: US-China Trade Relations— Who Needs Who More? A Global Value Chain & GDP Exposure View
- Deep Dive Exchange Series: China’s New Capital Controls—Prognosis and Response
- China Center Chart Dive: New Data Reveal Less Severe Trade Imbalance Between the US and China
- China Center Chart Dive: RMB Internationalization—No Pain, No Gain
- China Center Chart Dive: New GDP Projections Suggest Ongoing "Soft Fall" to Continue
- China Center Quick Note: The US Election-an Unexpected De-Stabilizer
- China Center Quick Note: The US Election and the Decline of the TPP
- China Center Quick Note: The RMB’s Rise -- IMF SDR Inclusion
- China Center Chart Dive: The CFETS Basket and RMB Valuation—How It Works and Why It Matters
- China Center Quick Note: China's New "Going Out"
- China Center Quick Note: China & Brexit
- China Center Chart Dive: RMB Devaluation — a Guided Market Correction
- China Center Quick Take: China's MSCI Rejection — Reform and Conform, or Don't Play
- China Center Quick Note: China, the WTO, and the "Market Economy Status" Debate
Webcasts
- China: What Will the Year of the "Fire Rooster" Bring?
- Window on America: Post-Inauguration Analysis
- The Conference Board Economics Watch® - Emerging Markets View- China's New "Going Out": The One Belt One Road Initiatve
- The Conference Board Economics Watch® - Emerging Markets View- Who Will Feel the Chill from China's Slowing Economy
