Stability Underneath January’s Noisy Jobs Report

Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead^®:

• Job growth remained solid in January, adding 143,000 to payrolls with upward revisions to November and December. Additionally, California wildfires and winter weather likely impacted topline numbers.
• Annual BLS data updates added 2.0 million to household employment by capturing Census Bureau immigration counts, while benchmark revisions cut a smaller-than-anticipated 589,000 from payroll gains over the 12-months ending March 2024.
• Wage growth remains elevated, rising 0.5% in January as labor market tightness persists. Low worker turnover may help ease wage pressures in 2025, but likely won’t offset aging and immigration labor supply challenges.
• Unemployment fell by 142,000 and the unemployment rate declined to 4.0% (excluding population controls), indicating that hiring remains at sufficient levels to keep labor market churn in balance.
• Despite major