China View: The demand recovery is strengthening. How long will it last? | The Conference Board
The Conference Board uses cookies to improve our website, enhance your experience, and deliver relevant messages and offers about our products. Detailed information on the use of cookies on this site is provided in our cookie policy. For more information on how The Conference Board collects and uses personal data, please visit our privacy policy. By continuing to use this Site or by clicking "OK", you consent to the use of cookies. 

China View: The demand recovery is strengthening. How long will it last?

November 2020 | China Center Publications

Upbeat data confirm that China’s economic recovery is holding, and that the current strong momentum should continue over the coming several months. This means that China’s Q4 GDP growth is likely to be higher than we previously anticipated. We maintain, however, that several key factors driving the current momentum are not sustainable, specifically: double-digit export growth, booming property investment, and abundant liquidity and investment funding flows. Growth will inevitably slow as these factors diminish. The recent wave of corporate bond defaults is evidence of the mounting downward pressures on growth. It is worrisome that these defaults are happening as Beijing shifts monetary policy, ever so gradually, from loose to normal (Bloomberg News). As the steep phase of recovery flattens, and credit conditions continue to tighten, expect volatility to increase.



Yuan Gao

Senior Economist, China Center for Economics and Business
The Conference Board



CED Distinguished Leadership Awards Celebration

CED Distinguished Leadership Awards Celebration

October 25, 2021 | (New York, NY)

Support Our Work

Support our nonpartisan, nonprofit research and insights which help leaders address societal challenges.