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Growth will be moderate in 2016 and despite rising concerns a recession is unlikely in the near term. Consumer sentiment and spending remain relatively strong, buoyed by continued job growth, low inflation, continued housing recovery, and falling oil prices. Consumer spending accounts for two-thirds of the economy. The other third of economic activity—in particular investment, net exports, and government spending—would have to collapse to offset that much consumer spending, which is very unlikely to happen anytime soon.