2024: A Year in Preview

14 February 2024 / Article

Critical risks and opportunities are arising from issues including economic uncertainty, artificial intelligence (AI), climate change, and human capital management. The Conference Board hosted a gathering of CEOs at the end of January in Palm Beach, Florida, to discuss geopolitical risks, economic trends, and environmental and business sustainability factors driving strategic decisions in 2024 and beyond. Discussions were catalyzed by the findings of the 2024 C-Suite Outlook survey conducted by The Conference Board.

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CEOs in the US are concerned about the large and fast-growing federal debt as the greatest geopolitical risk, with potential repercussions on inflation, interest rates, and a downturn in growth. Underscoring the extent of the problem, the government paid an estimated $879 billion in debt service in FY2023, a $162 billion (23%) increase over FY2022. Business leaders should embrace adaptability, engage in scenario planning, and invest in efficiencies including AI and talent to ensure long-term business resilience.
AI will have a transformative effect on companies across the economy. Sectors with large data pools, such as health care, will feel the impact first with improvements in efficiency and training. While data collection is crucial, ethical oversight and addressing human considerations are vital for successful AI deployment. Businesses not only need to invest in the technology, they also need to prioritize internal communication, especially on the HR side, while at the same time planning for the need to upskill and reskill their workforces.

The global response to the energy transition has been fragmented, and there remains an acute need for comprehensive policies and practical solutions. While the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) of 2022 was a positive step in this direction, climate change, aging power grids, and the need to upgrade transportation infrastructure are key concerns. Businesses should proactively address energy needs, taking into consideration potential disruptions and exploring sustainable options. Public-private partnerships are crucial for funding infrastructure overhauls, and government incentives will be needed to drive private sector involvement.
Some businesses are decoupling or de-risking from China amid fraying US-China relations and other geopolitical tensions. Uncertainties around China’s economic challenges, along with the government’s political philosophy that national security considerations take precedence over economic matters, are key concerns. Operating in China when the government is managing new external and domestic risks and making frequent institutional, regulatory, and policy adjustments requires MNCs to build operational resilience against today’s increasingly disruptive environment.
Leadership and corporate culture play a crucial role in overcoming the current labor shortage, and the focus should shift from immediate AI solutions to reassuring and retaining top talent. These urgent challenges require leadership to address employees’ evolving expectations, underscoring the importance of corporate culture, transparency, and adaptability. CEOs should prioritize a transparent and authentic corporate culture that resonates with employees’ values. Regular communication and a culture of continuous learning are essential for effective leadership in the evolving workplace.