Consumer confidence increased modestly in Q4 2021; however, this improvement may not be sustained in the near term due to a slow vaccination campaign in many countries and a new set of lockdowns. On the bright side, the EU and the UK have agreed on a deal that rules their relationship as of January 1, avoiding at the last minute a no-deal Brexit. However, lack of clarity on many practical issues and new paperwork and compliance rules are complicating the lives of many businesses that trade across the Channel. Looking ahead, firms that are part of global supply chains will witness disruptions and will be pushed to reorganize in light of the new compliance requirements.