The Day After the Shutdown Ends

While it is still very unclear when the current government shutdown might end, based on past shutdowns as well as some special considerations relating to this shutdown, it is possible to outline some considerations which offer insights for policy developments and future events when the shutdown eventually ends.

Trusted Insights for What's Ahead^®

The budget—and the possibility of future shutdowns. Whether the shutdown ends with the Senate accepting the House-passed bill or in another manner, it is extremely likely that any continuing resolution (CR) would be only a short-term measure (for instance, the House bill would fund operations only through November 21). This raises the possibility of future shutdowns if Congress cannot agree on a full-year budget by any new deadline.
“Minibus”? One possibility is that Congress, likely led by the Senate, could pass a “minibus” of several relatively noncontroversial budget bills (for instance, veterans’ affairs and military construction). This would be less comprehensive than an “omnibus” bill covering all 12 budget bills but it would also narrow the scope of any future shutdown, limiting the shutdown to agencies and programs not funded for Fiscal Year 2026 in the minibus.
Federal layoffs. The Administration has threatened large-scale reductions in force (RIFs) during the shutdown and has begun the process for several thousand employees, although the legal basis to do so during a shutdown itself is unclear. Would some of these employees be rehired following the shutdown—or once a shutdown is ended, would the Administration begin further RIFs?
Back pay for Federal employees. As a related issue, will furloughed employees (those deemed “non-essential” and thus not working during a shutdown) receive full back pay once the shutdown ends? Some in the Administration suggest these employees will not be paid—but a 2019 law is designed to ensure that they are paid, and continuing appropriations at 2025 levels in a new CR also implies that they will be paid.
Government operations. With only designated essential personnel at work, it takes time for government operations to resume fully once the government reopens. In particular, payments due under contracts may be delayed, and contracts themselves may take longer to be approved, delaying expected payments to contractors and vendors.
Withheld funds. During the shutdown, the Administration has withheld funds for certain projects, notably about $20 billion for major infrastructure projects in New York City and Chicago and $8 billion in clean energy projects across 16 states. Will the funds be released after the shutdown ends?
Air traffic control and US flight operations. While air traffic controllers are generally considered essential employees, some US airports have experienced flight delays because of staffing shortages. It could take time to resume full operations once the government fully reopens.
Effect on tourism. While Customs agents are considered essential personnel, closure of sites such as National Parks and the Smithsonian Institution has a negative effect on tourism, an important sector of the economy in many parts of the country.
The future of Affordable Care Act premium tax credits. One key issue leading up to the shutdown was the future of premium tax credits for purchases of Affordable Care Act healthcare policies on the ACA marketplace. The premium subsidies, enacted as part of pandemic relief, expire on December 31. Notices of new premium rates, which in many cases will be higher without the subsidies, will go to policyholders in early November, perhaps putting pressure on Congress to extend the subsidies for at least a year if not longer.
Provisions against future impoundments. Would a future CR reassert Congress’ traditional powers under the Impoundment Control Act by restricting the President’s ability to withhold funds Congress has appropriated? Or is this provision a barrier that could extend the shutdown?

The Day After the Shutdown Ends

October 15, 2025

Trusted Insights for What's Ahead^®

The budget—and the possibility of future shutdowns. Whether the shutdown ends with the Senate accepting the House-passed bill or in another manner, it is extremely likely that any continuing resolution (CR) would be only a short-term measure (for instance, the House bill would fund operations only through November 21). This raises the possibility of future shutdowns if Congress cannot agree on a full-year budget by any new deadline.

“Minibus”? One possibility is that Congress, likely led by the Senate, could pass a “minibus” of several relatively noncontroversial budget bills (for instance, veterans’ affairs and military construction). This would be less comprehensive than an “omnibus” bill covering all 12 budget bills but it would also narrow the scope of any future shutdown, limiting the shutdown to agencies and programs not funded for Fiscal Year 2026 in the minibus.

Federal layoffs. The Administration has threatened large-scale reductions in force (RIFs) during the shutdown and has begun the process for several thousand employees, although the legal basis to do so during a shutdown itself is unclear. Would some of these employees be rehired following the shutdown—or once a shutdown is ended, would the Administration begin further RIFs?

Back pay for Federal employees. As a related issue, will furloughed employees (those deemed “non-essential” and thus not working during a shutdown) receive full back pay once the shutdown ends? Some in the Administration suggest these employees will not be paid—but a 2019 law is designed to ensure that they are paid, and continuing appropriations at 2025 levels in a new CR also implies that they will be paid.

Government operations. With only designated essential personnel at work, it takes time for government operations to resume fully once the government reopens. In particular, payments due under contracts may be delayed, and contracts themselves may take longer to be approved, delaying expected payments to contractors and vendors.

Withheld funds. During the shutdown, the Administration has withheld funds for certain projects, notably about $20 billion for major infrastructure projects in New York City and Chicago and $8 billion in clean energy projects across 16 states. Will the funds be released after the shutdown ends?

Air traffic control and US flight operations. While air traffic controllers are generally considered essential employees, some US airports have experienced flight delays because of staffing shortages. It could take time to resume full operations once the government fully reopens.

Effect on tourism. While Customs agents are considered essential personnel, closure of sites such as National Parks and the Smithsonian Institution has a negative effect on tourism, an important sector of the economy in many parts of the country.

The future of Affordable Care Act premium tax credits. One key issue leading up to the shutdown was the future of premium tax credits for purchases of Affordable Care Act healthcare policies on the ACA marketplace. The premium subsidies, enacted as part of pandemic relief, expire on December 31. Notices of new premium rates, which in many cases will be higher without the subsidies, will go to policyholders in early November, perhaps putting pressure on Congress to extend the subsidies for at least a year if not longer.

Provisions against future impoundments. Would a future CR reassert Congress’ traditional powers under the Impoundment Control Act by restricting the President’s ability to withhold funds Congress has appropriated? Or is this provision a barrier that could extend the shutdown?

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