Can a Recession Be Foretold?
September 23, 2022 | Guide & Reference
Yes, there are a variety of tools and methodologies to help predict recessions, but they are not perfect. Forecasting efforts range from large-scale general equilibrium econometric models to new machine learning methods. These methods can yield a series of future growth rate forecasts. Econometric models can also indicate the probability that the economy is likely to register a turning point. In contrast, some diffusion indexes like the purchasing managers indexes and consumer and business sentiment indexes are compiled to take the pulse of market participants and their reflections about overall economic conditions. These types of indicators attempt to directly answer the question of whether the economy will be in recession (expanding or contracting) at a given time in the future. Other approaches rely on financial indicators such as interest rates on bonds and interest rate spreads that rapidly summarize a lot of information about economic conditions and are available in real time.
To get complimentary access to this publication click "Read more" to sign in or create an account.