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China’s economy is in the midst of a deep structural downshift--a “Long Soft Fall”--that began in 2012 and will likely persist for years to come. This transition may include a prolonged period of anemic economic growth exacerbated by recent stimulus measures that have forestalled necessary restructuring.
Among other things, this transition will result in increased disparity in provincial economic performance. Regions with the requisite mix of economic factors should sustain their growth and dynamism, but those without them will likely see stagnation or worse. To help MNC business planners better understand these regional risk dynamics, the China Center has constructed a new "Risk Composite Score."