Gaza: Can the World Find a Lasting Solution?

Steve Odland: Welcome to C-Suite Perspectives, a signature series by The Conference Board. I'm Steve Odland, the CEO of The Conference Board and the host of this podcast series. And in today's conversation, we're going to discuss Gaza. What are the plans for the territory? What could the future bring for the nearly 2 million people who call it home? 

Joining me today is Dr. Lori Esposito Murray, senior fellow for national security and managing director of CEO programs at the Council on Foreign Relations. She also is a trustee of the Committee for Economic Development of The Conference Board. 

Lori, welcome back to the show.  

Lori Murray: Thank you, Steve. And thank you for asking me to talk about this very timely and important topic.  

Steve Odland: It is timely and important, especially to all those people in the region who are affected, but just for our listeners, can you just briefly: Where is Gaza? How did this territory come to be? What country is it even in today? 

Lori Murray:So Gaza is a very, very small slice of land on the Mediterranean, bracketed by Israel, mostly, and then its southern border with Egypt. It's 25 miles long, it's 6 miles wide, a very sliver piece of land that actually houses and is the home of 2 million Palestinians. 

And its history goes as far back as 4,000 years, but in terms of its relevance to what's happening today, its most important modern history was that it really was created as a result of the 1948 Arab-Israeli war after Israel declared independence as a nation, and the populations were dispersed throughout Israel and the Middle East in that war. 

And you had the Palestinians really becoming refugees in two particular areas, West Bank and Gaza. And for most of the time period up until the 1967 war, it was controlled by Egypt. In the 1967 war,Israel captures Gaza and the West Bank and basically controlled Gaza, with a military presence, and settlers were moving in, until 2005, when the Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon made the decision, the Israeli government made the decision, that it was too difficult to provide the security for the Israelis in Gaza and actually withdrew militarily, and the settlers left Gaza in 2005.  

That was followed by Palestinian elections, and the homebred militant group Hamas actually won the elections in 2005-2006, split with the Palestinian Authority, Fatah, in what actually became a conflict, kicked the Palestinian Authority out of Gaza. Hamas basically has controlled Gaza since then in terms of internal governance. But Israel and Egypt have very much controlled the borders, controlled what goes in and out of Gaza, who goes in and out of Gaza, since that time.  

Steve Odland: And so it is technically part of Israel, but it has been run autonomously, as you're saying, since 2005 by their government that they elected, which was Hamas. 

Lori Murray:So I do want to just clarify that, according to international law, Israel is considered an occupying power in Gaza. In terms of internal control for the governance of the Palestinian population, that is really happening because of Hamas. 

Steve Odland: So, just building on understanding. So, Hamas is, not only the governing organization, but it's also been characterized as a terrorist organization and its funding come from a variety of sources. So talk about who are Hamas and who's funding them.  

Lori Murray:So Hamas is actually an indigenous militant group from Gaza. It was actually established in Gaza in 1987. It is a terrorist group, according to—the U.S.C. has declared it a terrorist group. It doesn't recognize Israel. It had been committed to the destruction of Israel, as opposed to the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank, which does recognize Israel. Sothere's an important and very important difference there.  

It runs autocratically, Hamas, it autocratically controls the Gaza Strip. It runs it like a terrorist organization would. Gaza has been pretty much extremely poor, and Gazans have been extremely poor, with many of them living below the poverty line during Hamas's rule. And it's very authoritarian, militaristic leadership of Palestinians in Gaza. 

Steve Odland: And there's really no GDP to speak of coming from Gaza.There's no industry and so forth. So where does their funding come from?  

Lori Murray:So Hamas's funding for Gaza and for its organization is mainly supported by Iran. It is considered a proxy of Iran, as is Hezbollah, as are the Houthis. And so that's its principal funding, its principal organizational base, is being an Iran proxy.  

Steve Odland: And Iran, of course, is dedicated to eliminating Israel, as well. And sothey're working through these proxies to effect that. And so Israel's point of view on this is that essentially, these are adversaries. 

Lori Murray: Yes, that is really clear. This is top priority in terms of security threats for Israel. Really trying to manage what happens in the West Bank and in Gaza. Critically important to Israel security.  

Steve Odland: OK, since 2005, Israel's been out of there. Hamas has been governing Gaza until October 7. So talk about what happened to start this latest conflict.  

Lori Murray:So Israel does control the borders of Gaza and what comes in and what comes out. And right in 2023, Gaza was actually muchmore quiet in terms of issues and problems with Hamas, as opposed to the West Bank. 

And what we saw happen, which was an incredible surprise, traumatizing surprise for Israel, was the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israeli citizens. The victims were young people attending a concert just outside the borders of Gaza. They were Israelis living in kibbutzes right in that area. 

 It was violent, it was extreme, it broke through Israeli security, and it was on the anniversary of the Yom Kippur War, which was also a surprise attack by Egypt and Syria in 1973 that shocked Israel. So it was devastating, it was barbaric, and it was traumatizing for the whole nation. And that's what led to Israel declaring war against Hamas. It actually declared war, the parliament declared war against Hamas, and we launched the 16 months of this horrific war that's taking place in Gaza that has led to 90% destruction of the buildings, 90% displacement of the Palestinians who live in Gaza, which finally resulted in the ceasefire at the end of the Biden administration, with the help of the incoming Trump administration, temporary ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. 

Steve Odland: But there are still hostages being held that are in the mix here.  

Lori Murray: Right, exactly, which is so key, and it's over 200 hostages were taken. The war has also involved Iran, it has involved Iran's direct attacks on Israel, Israel's response, the threats of escalation. There was also the possibility that Israel's northern front could also explode into conflict. It's been a really serious and challenging security environment for Israel, for the region, and actually, for the world. It's been a very, very serious conflict that could have escalated globally.  

Steve Odland:So there have been 2 million people living there for some time, and this war has really displaced them. Where are they currently?  

Lori Murray:So the Gazans, because the borders are so controlled by Israel and by the southern border by Egypt, the Gazans have been basically moving from the north to the south to the middle of the country, all trying to find these secure zones that are very difficult to find. And if they do exist, there's still areas of combat. So, 90% of the population is displaced. And they're locked in. I mean, they're locked into this.  

Steve Odland:So they can't go out. And so they just keep moving around and away from the military action, which, that's2 million people on the move here. 

Lori Murray: Yes, exactly. 90% of the population, according to international organizations—World Bank, UN—are considered displaced, internally displaced.  

Steve Odland: But these are ethnic Palestinians. They're people who have been in the region a long time. Did they originate in Gaza, or did they migrate to Gaza earlier in the last, or, I guess, later in the last century.  

Lori Murray:So Gaza obviously has citizens who are Gazans, who have always been Gazans. But the major displacement that took place, as I was mentioning in 1948 in the first Arab-Israeli war, when you had displacement of Palestinians, mostly to the West Bank and to Gaza, and that actually many of the current Gazans are descendants of the displaced Palestinians from the 1948 war who still own, still have the deeds to their homes in Israel, who have kept their keys to those homes. It's all a part of the history and the culture of Gaza.  

Steve Odland: OK, so recently the new US administration has made a proposal regarding Gaza. Talk to us about what that is.  

Lori Murray: So the president, during his meeting with Prime Minister Netanyahu just a few days ago, announced that the US could, should own Gaza, that it had potential to be what he called the Riviera, the Mediterranean Riviera, that it's a piece of land that has been devastated, has been in conflict most of its history, has been devastated by this current war, as I had mentioned, 90% of the population is displaced, 90% of the infrastructure is gone, the water sources are polluted, if they even exist. I think 70%, according to, believe it's the United Nations, 70% of the water supply is leaking, of what exists. A lot of that water supply has been totally bombed out. 

So, the President said that the US, and this has evolved, but basically where we are today is that the US should own Gaza, should redevelop it after the war is ended, should play a major role working with countries in the region to redevelop the land, clean it up, de-mine it, and actually build and take advantage and utilize the beauty of that strip of land and turn it into a Mediterranean Riviera that should be there, the world would welcome there, all tourists can come. And basically put this on the table as a solution to the years and years and years of war and disruption in the Middle East and to actually bring the Middle East forward into an era of peace.  

Steve Odland: OK. Sowe've just talked about what the proposal is. After a short break, we're going to come back and talk about whether this is really possible, what the reactions are, and where we think this proposal is going. Stay with us, we'll be right back.  

Welcome back to C-Suite Perspectives. I'm your host, Steve Odland from The Conference Board, and I'm joined today by Dr. Lori Esposito Murray from the Council on Foreign Relations, and we're talking about Gaza and the latest proposals from the US administration.  

OK, so just before the break, we were talking about the administration's proposal to redevelop Gaza. What is the reaction, first of all, from the Arab nations, neighboring Arab nations to this proposal? And what is Israel's reaction to the proposal?  

Lori Murray: So, a key piece of the proposal is that the Palestinians, the Gazans, would not be able to return. That's evolved, whether they could return after it was rebuilt. Now the proposal is that they will be getting alternate housing developments, neighborhoods elsewhere. And that they would not want to return, but they will also not be able to return. So that's key in terms of what the response has been. And the initial response across the board, including. China, Moscow, London, Middle East, has been that you cannot displace the Palestinians from their homeland, from Gaza. 

And that's not, for the Saudis, that's not an answer to this problem, that more displacement is not the answer to the problem, and Palestinians deserve and Gazans deserve to be able to live in their homeland.  

It's been interesting, Steve, because it's been such a vast and moving issue. As of today Prince Abdullah of Jordan is meeting with President Trump. Egypt has announced that the Arab countries will be coming together, and it seems like they're going to be coming together in Riyadh, if I heard the President correctly today. What it has done, and this is actually what the national security advisor, the president's national security advisor, had said they hoped it would do, is that if you don't like this proposal, then come up with another one.Because we can't continue down this pathway of solutions that never stick and wars that keep happening.  

Needless to say, what's on the chopping block here is the two-state solution. And the proposal is seen as having blown up the two-state solution and the answer has been, well, if you don't like this, come up with a solution. So really putting it in the hands of the international community, but most importantly the Middle Eastern countries.  

Steve Odland: Well, and the announcement from the US was made when the two presidents were together, Israel's president and the US president were together. And so the overtone or, the unstated reaction is, well, this is really Israel's proposal, right? To remove the Palestinians from Gaza and do something else with it. But the US had to know that that would be the reaction to the proposal, regardless of what the proposal said, just because of how it was done. So that and the reallydoability of redeveloping an area that size makes people scratch their heads and wonder whether there's some different motive to this. Your thoughts? 

Lori Murray: Well, it's interesting because, first and foremost, there was a lot of negative reaction to the proposal, but it was embraced by the right wing in Israel, and the right-wing coalition had threatened Netanyahu with the takedown of his government, of the coalition, if the ceasefire continued, because they saw Israel is losing in the ceasefire deal, and he had been threatened with that just before he had come to the United States. And so, this definitely will bolster the right wing of Israel in terms of Netanyahu's coalition. And so in that sense, it strengthened Netanyahu's position as president. So that was one result.  

The "Why would the president do this?" Obviously, I think youhave to take it at face value. What his national security advisor has said, National Security Advisor Waltz said, that to get other proposals on the table, there's no solution, even in this three-phase plan, for the ceasefire to become a permanent ceasefire. There's no real solution on the table for Gaza, and that's all part of a permanent ceasefire is how you're going to reconstitute and redevelop Gaza. Israel along with a number of other countries, don't want to see Hamas in control of Gaza. I mean, obviously Israel's main objective in the war has been to destroy Hamas. 

And so, how do you develop Gaza is a key question. The president decided that he was going to blow up and disrupt years of the US supporting a two-state solution, and I think you have to take it at face value that If his solution wasn't one that would work, that countries in the region didn't think would work, then own it, and let's work on what would work. 

Steve Odland:So you can see the logic to that. I mean, you can almost see the logic of throwing out something that's so silly that it requires that everybody come together seriously and come up with something that isn't. But is the recommendation or is the proposal silly, or is it real? Or is it just a stalking horse for getting people to come together and come up with a solution? 

Lori Murray:So I actually thinkthere's more there there in terms of President Trump. And he seems to be doubling down on this solution, at least in today's conversation and in the subsequent conversations that he's had, interviews that he's had since the meeting with Prime Minister Netanyahu. 

I actually think there's more thought has gone into this. Jared Kushner, his son in law, has been talking about this for over a year. It was also part of rhetoric that was included in the campaign about how this could possibly be a solution in terms of Gaza and the future of Gaza and the future of the Middle East. 

And the President, I think, the President has put more thought into this, and it wasn't just an offhand comment on his part in the meeting with the Prime Minister of Israel. I also think he actually believes that this could be, should be a really disruptive alternative but believes that it's something that could happen, or at least should happen, or one of the alternatives that would provide a very different answer to what's happening in the Middle East and the continued conflict between Israel, the Palestinians, the role of Iran. You just go down the list of the disruption and the power plays that have been happening there. 

Steve Odland: But the proposal is that the US would just take over Gaza. The question is who owns Gaza, and who would the US take it over from, whose territory is it, and therefore what kind of compensation is made for all of that and so forth. So if it's a serious proposal, there's—I mean, if you think about it in real estate terms, which is how some people are positioning it, there's a little bit of a title search issue here.  

Lori Murray: Well, the devil's in the details here, Steve, but I think in the way the president has explained it, he sees the Palestinians moving to new communities that are built in Jordan and Egypt, maybe even Saudi Arabia, new communities that are built that will really provide them the type of lifestyle that's actually a viable economic lifestyle. I'm just—from what the president has been saying, he sees that as an alternative and a viable alternative.  

And why would they want to come back to this devastated area that needs to be cleaned out in terms of debris, tons and tons and tons of debris, and it's going to take 10 or 15 years to rebuild. There are a tremendous number of questions in terms of, how does the US own it, how do you even operate within that territory?What's the role of the US? The president has said there's no military role, no boots on the ground. I mean, there's a lot of how do you get from here to there. But in terms of a vision, let's say he sees it as providing the Palestinians an alternative community and lifestyle outside of Gaza.  

Steve Odland: But that alternative needs to be provided by some countries who are unwilling to provide it.  

Lori Murray: Well, the president, I think, in watching his press conference today, believes that he is having very fruitful discussions with King Abdullah. The Egyptians are preparing, and this was also part of the discussion today, are preparing assessments and alternatives in terms of how to manage the situation. 

The post-conflict situation with Gaza, I think, though, it's also important to point out that there's so much on the chopping block here, but it's also important to point out that we may actually see by Saturday the ceasefire agreement collapse. And sowe're back into a situation of war.  

And what's happened is that Hamas has said it may be delaying the release of three more hostages because of use of force they say the Israelis have done, as well as the fact that they're not allowing the new aid to come in. And part of that aid is to build the tents for the Palestinians who have been displaced coming back to their towns. And they put that on the table that they may not be releasing the hostages, which then resulted in a response, ultimately, where the president said, if they don't release all the hostages by Saturday noon— which is really putting on the table of something outside of what the ceasefire agreement is. The president said he wants all the hostages released by noon Saturday. All hell will break loose.  

So we're actually at a very critical and disruptive point in the Middle East, in this war, in this conflict, where the ceasefire may actually just collapse.  

Steve Odland:Yeah, it is interesting, and they're trying to galvanize a solution quickly with these deadlines, but Hamas still holds a lot of hostages. I don't know if anyone really knows the exact number, do they?  

Lori Murray: No, and to date, I believe 18 have been released. Of the over 200 that were, 18 have been released under this agreement. And they believe there's, the estimates are varying, but I believe over a hundred hostages, a number of whom may be dead, and that's all part of the agreement is the final part of the agreement. Phase three is returning the bodies of the dead hostages.  

Steve Odland: Right, and that they fear that the pace is commensurate with the number of people who may be alive. And sothere's a lot of unknowns in that, as well. Solet's presume that this doesn't happen, that the US doesn't take over Gaza and create the Riviera of the Middle East. Then what happens?  

Lori Murray: Well, as I said, one alternative or one possibility is the ceasefire collapses completely on Saturday, and Israel and Hamas are back at war again. And we see the spiraling accelerated hostilities. The other solutions that have been out there, and that is part of the whole problem here, is that no one has really had a solution to what this reconstruction of Gaza is. There were a number of red lines that have been put down.  

As I mentioned, Israel will not allow Hamas to govern. Gaza. So what are the alternatives? The Palestinian Authority is considered corrupt, and the Gazans do not want or have not wanted, in the past, the Palestinian Authority to be managing their daily lives. There has been conversation about trying to get the Palestinian Authority and Hamas to come together. That seems to be a nonstarter, both in terms of the two parties, as well as Israel and Egypt, as well as, concerns, I'm sure, throughout the Middle East, as far as that's concerned. 

So, an international force, US, UAE, Israeli oversight, there doesn’tseem to be a solution that actually takes you to a peaceful, permanent ceasefire for Gaza. And that is hopefully one of the alternatives of what may come out of this current situation where the president is directly involved. He's dealing with the leadership directly in the Middle East, personally involved, personally doing the negotiations trying to move this forward.  

As I said, negative side, it all collapses and war rekindles. Positive side, maybe it will prompt and provoke alternatives among the Arab countries in terms of how to actually solve this, the problem of Gaza.  

Steve Odland: Yeah, I mean, this the cynics would view the administration's proposal as unserious and but that is just Within the realm of possibility enough that, people should get to the table and come up with a real solution. And so, hopefully, there's something positive that comes out of all of this. 

Lori Murray:Yeah. And I think what's prompting the response is not necessarily that the solution that the president has put on the table is realistic, but that it could actually prompt more war, more conflict, more terrorism, because the Palestinians feel like even the possibility of having a state is no longer on the table. They're just being displaced again. So that's the real fear. And that's moving away from where the US has been always calling for a Palestinian two-state solution and instead removing the US so far from that goal that it actually causes more conflict.  

Steve Odland: OK, we'll have to leave it there, and hopefully our listeners will stay tuned to this space because things keep moving, and we'll keep trying to explain it. 

Dr. Lori Esposito Murray, thanks for being with us.  

Lori Murray: Oh, thank you, Steve.  

Steve Odland: And thanks to all of you for listening to C-Suite Perspectives. I'm Steve Odland and this series has been brought to you by The Conference Board.