No Major Signs of Tariffs in April CPI, Yet
Our Privacy Policy has been updated! The Conference Board uses cookies to improve our website, enhance your experience, and deliver relevant messages and offers about our products. Detailed information on the use of cookies on this site is provided in our cookie policy. For more information on how The Conference Board collects and uses personal data, please visit our privacy policy. By continuing to use this Site or by clicking "ACCEPT", you acknowledge our privacy policy and consent to the use of cookies. 

Global Economy Briefs

Timely insights from the Economy, Strategy & Finance Center

No major signs of the inflationary impact of the “Liberation Day” tariffs were evident in the April CPI report, suggesting that the pass-through of tariffs on imports is yet to be seen in the coming months. Meanwhile, declines in discretionary travel-related services prices continued to indicate consumers’ caution about their financial situation, reflected in recent consumer confidence data.

No Major Signs of Tariffs in April CPI, Yet

May 13, 2025

No major signs of the inflationary impact of the “Liberation Day” tariffs were evident in the April CPI report, suggesting that the pass-through of tariffs on imports is yet to be seen in the coming months. Meanwhile, declines in discretionary travel-related services prices continued to indicate consumers’ caution about their financial situation, reflected in recent consumer confidence data.

Figure 1. Goods Inflation Edges Higher, while Service Price Growth Slows

 alt=

Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, The Conference Board.

Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead®

  • We estimate sizable shocks to growth, inflation, and employment will likely be evident in the coming months, even as the administration reached an agreement to significantly reduce tariffs on China. The Conference Board estimates tariffs may substantially lower GDP growth and raise inflation.
  • Uncertainty with respect to what extent tariffs will impact inflation suggests the Fed will likely remain on hold in the coming months, but may cut interest rates later this year as demand slows and the labor market weakens.
  • Rising prices in Q2 and Q3 will likely weigh on dem

Author

This publication is only available to Members. Please sign in to your myTCB® account to access it. To learn more about becoming a Member, click here. To check if your company is a Member, click here.

myTCB® Members get exclusive access to webcasts, publications, data and analysis, plus discounts to events.

More From This Series