No Major Signs of Tariffs in April CPI, Yet

Figure 1. Goods Inflation Edges Higher, while Service Price Growth Slows

Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, The Conference Board.

Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead^®

• We estimate sizable shocks to growth, inflation, and employment will likely be evident in the coming months, even as the administration reached an agreement to significantly reduce tariffs on China. The Conference Board estimates tariffs may substantially lower GDP growth and raise inflation.
• Uncertainty with respect to what extent tariffs will impact inflation suggests the Fed will likely remain on hold in the coming months, but may cut interest rates later this year as demand slows and the labor market weakens.
• Rising prices in Q2 and Q3 will likely weigh on dem