Core Inflation Uptick Continues to Suggest 25bp Cut

The data suggest that the PCE deflator, which the Fed bases monetary policy from, likely also will reveal continued stickiness in underlying inflation in September when released at the end of this month.

Stubborn services inflation reflects glacial slowing in shelter costs, but also rising costs for other services caused by structural changes in the economy.

We continue to believe tracking US data suggest a 25bp cut remains the most probable at the November FOMC meeting.

Figure 1. Core CPI inflation ticked up

Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, and The Conference Board.

Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead^®

• Continued health in the labor market, strong tracking for Q3 real GDP growth, and sticky